UFC mailbag: Has Mackenzie Dern turned a corner? Plus, looking ahead to UFC 311

The primary UFC occasion of 2025 befell this previous weekend when UFC Vegas 101 went down on this planet’s most well-known APEX. Although the cardboard was a wee bit maligned heading into the weekend, UFC Vegas 101 ended up being a reasonably enjoyable time, and some notable issues occurred, together with Mackenzie Dern getting her revenge on Amanda Ribas with a third-round armbar victory.

So, let’s discuss UFC Vegas 101 another time earlier than turning our eye to the sensational UFC 311 card which takes place this upcoming weekend.

Mackenzie Dern

“Feels just like the Mackenzie Dern Bandwagon is perhaps one combat from a title shot? Who will get her there? I do know her and Virna Jandiroba fought as soon as however it was like 5 years in the past. Looks like a strong No. 1 contender combat.”

That’s proper it’s, child! All of us Dern truthers are lastly having our second! Certain, we lose A LOT earlier than then, however that doesn’t matter! We weren’t mistaken, simply early!

Regardless of mountains of proof calling me a moron, I’ve steadfastly believed that Mackenzie Dern could possibly be a professional title menace if she might simply get her act collectively. In spite of everything, the lady has an excellent energy, and that makes her extraordinarily harmful towards anybody, even when she saved getting beat. And whereas nobody ought to go spiking the soccer simply but, I do assume Saturday confirmed us that Dern is lastly beginning to enhance.

My greatest criticism of Dern shouldn’t be that she’s a nasty wrestler — she is, however whereas that’s dangerous and annoying, it’s not the deadly flaw. My greatest difficulty is that Dern merely isn’t imply sufficient. Regardless of being a nasty wrestler, she fairly commonly finds herself on the bottom and in high place. However from there, too typically Dern tries to Demian Maia her approach into a mild submission. Often that’s labored, however towards the most effective on this planet it hasn’t. So as an alternative of trying to find a submission endlessly, I need Dern to begin punishing fighters with punches and elbows, after which chase the submission. And we noticed a few of that towards Ribas!

Dern is an effective athlete with an elite ability, however has a whole lot of basic flaws that in all probability prohibit her from ever profitable a title. But when she will be able to construct on this, and easily be just a little extra ruthless within the cage, I consider she’ll go from being a Prime 10 strawweight to a Prime 5 one.

As for a way she will get to a title combat, I peered into my crystal ball and the trail was fairly clear: Tatiana Suarez beats Zhang Weili of their upcoming combat, and the UFC books a direct rematch. Jandiroba now must combat towards to remain energetic and the UFC books the rematch between Jandiroba and Dern for a similar card as Suarez-Zhang 2, simply in case somebody falls out.

I see this stuff.

Dern continued

“Does Mackenzie Dern have an opportunity of sneaking right into a title combat if Tatiana pulls out at brief discover?”

An opportunity? Certain. Probably? By no means.

For the previous few years now the most effective means in MMA has been availability, so if I’m in Dern’s nook, I’m telling her to remain sharp, simply in case. However, god forbid, Suarez is compelled out of the UFC 312 title combat with Zhang (given her historical past, truthful to fret about) then Jandiroba would be the first particular person the UFC calls. But when Jandiroba can’t or received’t for some purpose, Dern might be second in line proper now, so there’s undoubtedly an opportunity, even when it’s small.

Chris Curtis

“Was Chris Curtis unjustly denied a call?

“A call both technique to be clear.”

I feel it’s fairly inarguable that yeah, referee Mark Smith screwed the pooch on this one.

In case you missed it, Roman Kopylov stopped Chris Curtis with a walk-off head kick this previous Saturday, with simply seconds remaining within the combat. Besides once you say it like that, it looks like Curtis received slabbed up, which isn’t what occurred. The top kick clearly rocked Curtis who stumbled and fell, however Mark Smith appeared like he solely actually jumped in as a result of Kopylov walked it off. Make no mistake, Curtis was in a nasty approach, however he wasn’t out, and we’ve seen loads of fighters recuperate from related circumstances. This was an occasion of Kopylov enjoying the sport and forcing the referee to make a name. Mark Smith selected poorly.

Happily, although Smith undoubtedly tousled, it’s a type of errors we’ll rapidly overlook about as a result of it didn’t change the general end result. Kopylov and Curtis had been tied up on the judges’ scorecards, and it appears fairly clear that with the knockdown, Kopylov would have received the third spherical and a call, had it gone there. I’m certain that’s little consolation to Curtis who now has a KO loss on his report, however it’s the information.

Islam Makhachev

“Do you assume with a win at 311, Islam Makhachev is given the nod to leap to welterweight and problem both Belal Muhammad or Shavkat Rakhmonov?”

Sure. If Islam Makhachev beats Arman Tsarukyan in the primary occasion of UFC 311, I consider he’ll get a welterweight title shot subsequent.

Assuming Makhachev wins on Saturday, he can have victories over 4 of the highest 6 contenders within the light-weight division (Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway are the outliers, each of whom misplaced their final fights). Who would he face subsequent at light-weight? In a world the place champions not often clear out their weight divisions, Makhachev has completed a reasonably good job at light-weight proper now. Certain, the winner of Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano can be effective, or I suppose a rematch with Charles Oliveira, however are these actually fights that he or followers are that interested by?

On high of that, a win on Saturday makes Makhachev probably the most completed light-weight in UFC historical past, with 4 profitable title defenses. Whenever you think about his spot atop the pound-for-pound rankings, it is a man who in all probability does deserve an opportunity at seizing a second title.

The query for me shouldn’t be “Will he get the chance?” however “Will Belal lose?” Belal Muhammad and Islam prepare collectively (not on a regular basis however sufficient now) they usually don’t appear significantly inclined to combat one another. If Muhammad efficiently defends his title towards Shavkat Rakhmonov, will Makhachev say eff it and check out anyway?

My intestine says no, however I additionally assume it’s a moot level. I consider Rakhmonov beats Muhammad after they combat, and although there’s some historical past between Rakhmonov and the Nurmagomedov gymnasium, I don’t assume that will prohibit the combat. And given the relative dearth of simple challengers in each weight divisions, I feel we’re heading to champ-champ combat earlier than the top of the 12 months.

UFC 311 fast hits

“1. Are you in any respect involved that Umar Nurmagomedov is much from 100% wholesome (the just lately damaged arm)?

“2. Favourite 311 tune and any tales from seeing them play reside?

“3. Who you bought for Kevin Holland vs. Reiner de Ridder, Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill, and which combat will you incorporate the following step of “The Climb” with?”

This weekend’s card is fairly stacked (at the least the primary card actually is) so let’s run down just a few of those earlier than we shut up store.

1. Marginally? For many who don’t know, Umar allegedly had a difficulty along with his arm that meant he couldn’t combat in December, however now that’s apparently not the case. Actually, it’s exhausting to know what’s true and what’s nonsense with regard to the arm saga at this level.

It’s fully doable that Umar did have a lingering arm difficulty however a title shot is a title shot and this one comes with Islam on the identical card. Alternatively, it’s simply as doable that his arm difficulty was simply not one hundred pc just a few months in the past and now it’s effective and that is additionally some ploy. In conditions like this, I defer to what the fighter is telling us as true, as a result of whether or not or not it’s, Umar is preventing Saturday, and in case you conform to combat, then you definately come as you’re.

2. I’ve by no means seen 311 reside, so I hope I didn’t unfold that lie someplace. I like 311 simply effective, however I solely personal one album of theirs (From Chaos). If I’m listening to reggae rock, I’m going with Pepper or Chic over 311 (although 311 beats out Barely Stoopid, I feel). However my favourite and their finest tune is Amber, however I’ll Be Right here Awhile additionally rips.

3. I’ll clearly supporting my boy Reiner de Ridder AKA The Dutch Knight AKA Henny Cognac as he takes on Kevin Holland. That combat goes to be impossibly foolish. Equally, there are few individuals who love Jiri Prochazka greater than I do, so I’ll be rooting for my giant fool violence king with the identical reckless abandon he fist fights with.

As for The Climb, no thought. Examine No Bets Barred when it drops later this week.

Thanks for studying and due to everybody who despatched in tweets (Xs?)! Do you’ve got any burning questions on issues at the least considerably associated to fight sports activities? You then’re in luck as a result of you’ll be able to ship your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I’ll reply my favourite ones! It doesn’t matter in the event that they’re topical or insane, simply as long as they’re good. Thanks once more, and see y’all subsequent week.