Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira each have the possibility to make historical past Saturday.
Ought to Topuria emerge victorious within the UFC 317 important occasion, and declare the vacant light-weight title, it is going to mark the top an unbelievable journey from promising UFC debutant to two-division champion, a journey that has taken “El Matador” lower than 5 years to finish. He forfeited his featherweight title to pursue this chance, so the transfer just isn’t with out threat. And he has a future UFC Corridor of Famer to beat.
Oliveira gained and defended the light-weight belt in 2021, and already holds a lot of UFC data together with essentially the most stoppages and most submissions within the promotion’s historical past. If he beats Topuria, he turns into the primary fighter to turn into a two-time champion within the illustrious 155-pound division. He’s not Islam Makhachev, however Oliveira is a rattling effective fighter in his personal proper, and he strengthens his case to be thought-about one of many three best lightweights of all-time if he pulls this off.
Alexandre Pantoja seeks his personal slice of historical past when he defends his flyweight title for the fourth time within the co-main occasion. It’s unlikely Pantoja ever sniffs the good Demetrious Johnson’s report of 11 consecutive title defenses, however even when he hits seven or eight, that places Pantoja in a category all his personal amongst fashionable UFC champions. Contemplating how uncommon it’s now for fighters to easily keep of their division and defend their titles, Pantoja shutting down discuss of a bantamweight transfer is refreshing.
He’s extra centered on selling the present crop of challengers at 125 kilos, together with his upcoming opponent Kai Kara-France. Lots has modified since Kara-France dropped a two-round resolution to Pantoja in The Final Fighter home in 2016, and although he didn’t put collectively a scintillating win streak to earn his shot, the New Zealand knockout artist has hovered across the entrance of the contender line for years and this time the matchmakers known as his quantity.
In different important card motion, Brandon Royval and Joshua Van vie to be the following flyweight title challenger, lightweights Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano meet in a battle of outdated males (their phrases, not ours), and Payton Talbott seems to be to proper the ship when he faces fellow blue-chip bantamweight Felipe Lima.
What: UFC 317
The place: T-Cellular Area in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, June 28. The 2-fight early preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Disney+, adopted by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN, ESPN+ and Disney+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight important card begins at 10 p.m. ET completely on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses point out standing within the MMA Combating World Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Ilia Topuria (P4P-2) vs. Charles Oliveira (3, P4P-17)
For many of combat week, I used to be severely planning to enterprise into Charles Oliveira upset territory, and with good purpose. Oliveira has measurement on Ilia Topuria, is the higher grappler, and has loads of knockout energy. He’s arguably the best combat finisher in UFC historical past, and if anybody can turn into the primary to not solely defeat Topuria however put him away inside the space, it’s “do Bronx.”
However my concern for Oliveira is similar for each Oliveira combat: He will get hit. Lots.
Sure, he will get knocked down and he will get up once more, however you’ll be able to solely roll these cube so many instances earlier than developing snake eyes. Even in his second win over Michael Chandler, Oliveira put a scare in his supporters with a fifth spherical that noticed him take plenty of harm.
That’s a sport he can’t play with the youthful, extra explosive Topuria. All of us love Oliveira for his maverick model, but when he will get dinged by Topuria, there are few fighters higher at understanding when to go in for the kill and when to again off. Topuria gained’t empty the gasoline tank looking a end that isn’t there. He gained’t foolishly dive right into a wounded Oliveira’s guard. And if Oliveira brings the warmth on the toes—and he’ll—Topuria gained’t stand and commerce.
“El Matador” will stay as much as his identify when it issues most, evading Oliveira’s highly effective rush and countering with the precision that led to historic knockouts of Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. It can take all of Topuria’s will and ability to place Oliveira down for the rely, however he’s going to do it.
Topuria by knockout, Spherical 2.
Choose: Topuria
Alexandre Pantoja (1, P4P-T3) vs. Kai Kara-France (6)
Talking of testing one’s luck, has Alexandre Pantoja hit the top of his championship run?
It was an extended climb to the highest for Pantoja within the first place as he needed to overcome just a few key losses to lastly earn a championship combat with Brandon Moreno, the person he’d crushed on The Final Fighter and in a 2018 contest. He narrowly gained their trilogy bout and has dutifully defended his throne since, hardly ever taking part in it secure with harmful contenders respiratory down his neck.
Kai Kara-France must be hoping he sees the identical Pantoja that was keen to face with Moreno and Steve Erceg, as a result of if “Don’t Blink” will get his probability to land a devastating shot, he gained’t miss. Pantoja has top-of-the-line chins within the enterprise and has by no means been completed, so Kara-France faces an uphill battle, to say the least.
Whereas Pantoja might be greater than keen to fulfill Kara-France head on, I believe we’ll see extra of the champion’s elite grappling consider right here. Pantoja is a lot enjoyable when he goes balls to the wall, however he’s additionally sensible and has a whole ability set. He’ll take Kara-France down when he sees a gap.
The combat ends when Pantoja takes a pissed off Kara-France down once more within the third spherical and works his solution to a rear-naked choke submission win.
Choose: Pantoja
Brandon Royval (T2) vs. Joshua Van
Big tip of the cap to Brandon Royval for even taking this combat. A win over Manel Kape would have assured Royval one other title shot; now, he offers the fast-rising Joshua Van the chance to take that spot.
At 23 and with lower than 5 years of professional expertise, Van is simply beginning his profession and he’s already garnered championship buzz. The Myanmar native is 7-1 within the UFC, with 4 of these wins occurring prior to now 9 months. By means of all of it, he’s confronted a lot of totally different stylistic matchups and confirmed maturity past his years, cliché as that’s to say. Yeah, he’s prepared for prime time.
However Royval ought to by no means be counted out, particularly since he confronted the same problem in his earlier combat. Tatsuro Taira was undefeated, and nonetheless simply 24 years outdated when he headlined a UFC APEX card towards Royval this previous October. The proficient Taira hung in there, however the extra skilled “Uncooked Dawg” was clearly the higher fighter on that night time and proved as soon as once more he’s no stepping stone.
Van will combat for a title sometime – and if I needed to wager, win one – however there’s nonetheless loads of rising pains to return and far of that can occur within the wake of a loss to Royval. There’s no substitute for high-level competitors and Royval has been by the crucible many instances over. There’s a gear we all know he can attain that Van has to study.
Royval will get the win (and his No. 1 contender spot) Saturday, however Van will nonetheless have folks buzzing together with his effort.
Choose: Royval
Beneil Dariush (T9) vs. Renato Moicano (14)
Sure Nation for Previous Males.
Born simply weeks aside, 36-year-olds Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano are embracing the truth that this could possibly be the final journey within the light-weight high 10 for each of them. These are nonetheless two of the most effective fighters on this planet in the most effective division and so they deserve our respect.
So who retains their slim championship hopes alive and who will get a agency nudge from Father time? I’m going with Dariush for the win.
When Moicano is at his finest, he dominates together with his grappling, one thing he shouldn’t be capable to do towards the equally gifted Dariush. Ought to this find yourself staying on the toes, give me Dariush’s measurement and energy for the win. Moicano has at all times had wonderful Muay Thai, so he’s no sitting duck, however Dariush will land the extra impactful blows.
I’m not anticipating a end, so search for these two to problem for a Struggle of the Evening award -letting Moicano stay as much as his “Cash” nickname even in defeat.
Choose: Dariush
Payton Talbott vs. Felipe Lima
I’ll be the 800th MMA pundit it to say it: I don’t like what they’re doing with Payton Talbott right here.
When Talbott was upset by Raoni Barcelos at UFC 311, it was a predictable upset given Talbott’s youth. He was given a tough push, he smacked into his present ceiling, he most likely discovered loads, and the UFC had an opportunity to recalibrate their expectations. No critical hurt executed.
However reserving him towards one other younger fighter that has confronted higher-level competitors previous to his UFC debut? HARM!
Look, it’s totally attainable Talbott takes a quantum leap from his final efficiency. His takedown protection was missing, however that’s a weak spot he can shore up and if that’s what he’s centered on for the previous six months, it might fully change the complexion of this combat. Add in his already spectacular putting presents and Talbott has the possibility to steal a few of Lima’s shine.
On paper, although, it’s Lima all the way in which. Lima can match Talbott’s pace on the toes and if Talbott’s takedown protection hasn’t improved, Lima will fortunately put him on his again. Additionally—and I don’t imply to repeat my Royval-Van factors—there’s a main distinction of their high quality of competitors. In his first two UFC fights, Lima beat Muhammad Naimov and Miles Johns, each opponents I’d choose over Talbott proper now.
Irrespective of who wins, I’m not ruling out both of those younger males as future contenders, however Lima is only a step forward proper now.
Choose: Lima
Preliminaries
Jack Hermansson def. Gregory Rodrigues
Hyder Amil def. Jose Miguel Delgado
Viviane Araujo (13) def. Tracy Cortez
Terrance McKinney def. Viacheslav Borshchev
Jacobe Smith def. Niko Worth
Jhonata Diniz def. Alvin Hines
