UFC 313 roundtable: Has Alex Pereira finally met his match?

Alex Pereira was the person of the hour in 2024. Is his time up now that the calendar has turned?

The sunshine heavyweight champion’s reign has been undeniably spectacular, however few would argue he hasn’t benefited from defending towards fighters with a restricted capability to make the most of his grappling deficiencies. That gained’t be the case in Saturday’s UFC 313 predominant occasion, when Pereira lastly squares off with the streaking Magomed Ankalaev.

Although Ankalaev has placed on a number of medical putting performances, he’s proven he has wrestling in his again pocket, too, and that could possibly be the important thing to fixing the “Poatan Puzzle.”

MMA Combating’s Alexander Ok. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew put their heads collectively to examine what the top of Pereira’s sizzling streak may seem like and what else to look out for at UFC 313.

1. If Alex Pereira loses this Saturday, how does it occur?

Lee: I’m all for maintaining the martial arts aside, however Magomed Ankalaev must be mixing it like DJ Spinderella if he desires to dethrone Alex Pereira.

Certain, Ankalaev is a superb striker and if he can catch “Poatan” and knock him out, it might vault him to a different stage of status. So there’s incentive for him to again up all of his powerful discuss and throw fingers with Pereira. It’s simply that he’s higher served, uh, not doing that, and that’s how the combat ought to play out if he and his crew have any sense.

That mentioned, I truly suppose Ankalaev can find yourself with the most effective of each worlds right here, utilizing his wrestling to throw Pereira off to set him up for a KO/TKO later within the combat. To invert a cliché, Pereira’s reign will finish with a bang, not a whimper.

Meshew: It will be fully loopy for Ankalaev to KO Pereira. Clearly, Pereira is the superior striker, however Ankalaev hits arduous, MMA is bizarre, and Pereira isn’t a spring rooster. That is additionally his fourth combat in lower than 12 months and there’s a motive champions don’t often combat that regularly: it’s arduous. That type of tempo can break you down in refined methods so it might occur.

That being mentioned, if Ankalaev wins, it’s as a result of he’s not a moron. Hanging with Alex Pereira is a nasty thought except you’re Israel Adesanya, and even then it’s 50/50. Pereira is a greater defensive wrestler than many consider however he’s not Jose Aldo. If Pereira loses it’s as a result of Ankalaev is the superior grappler and implements his will.

Heck: To point out my hand, I’m choosing Pereira, and I really feel fairly good about it. However for the sake of the query, if Poatan sees his unimaginable run come to an finish, Dana White goes to make use of the identical line he used after Belal Muhammad dethroned Leon Edwards: “It wasn’t a barnburner.”

Ankalaev is absolutely, actually good, and if he can land takedowns early and infrequently, he has an excellent probability to win. But when he goes via along with his promise to remain standing the entire time, it’s not going to go properly for him. Ought to Ankalaev win, I don’t consider will probably be an exciting affair, and Pereira is on his again for 75 p.c or extra of the combat.

2. Can Justin Gaethje or Rafael Fiziev lay declare to a title shot within the new co-main occasion?

Picture by Carmen Mandato/Getty Photographs

Heck: Let’s be clear about this: The reply must be completely not. However, that is the UFC, and that is 2025, and we’ve discovered—particularly on this division—availability is your finest good friend. So I’m not ruling it out, nevertheless it’s going to take one thing particular, and a bizarre subsequent few months for it to occur.

I don’t suppose Rafael Fiziev has a lot of a shot except he completely obliterates Justin Gaethje with a Spotlight of the Yr contender. Gaethje, nevertheless, is in an excellent place with the UFC. Dana White loves him, and he ought to, as a result of everybody else does and now he’s doing the promotion a favor. If he dominates the returning Fiziev, particularly if he will get a end, I gained’t be shocked if Gaethje will get a title shot. The massive query then turns into who would he combat? As a result of if Jack Della Maddalena beats Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, it gained’t be Islam Makhachev.

Lee: Yup. Vacant.

I’m piggybacking off My Finest Buddy’s reply right here, enjoying with the concept “JDM” scores an upset victory in Montreal (sorry, Belal!), a end result that clears the way in which for Makhachev to chase a second title at welterweight, and setting off a series response of Muhammad shifting as much as middleweight (there you go, Belal!) and Topuria dealing with the UFC 313 co-main occasion winner for the vacant belt.

That sounds screwy as hell, however we’re set for a bizarre and wacky second half of 2025, so why not predict one thing dumb like Topuria vs. Fiziev for the light-weight title? Crazier issues have occurred and will occur. Jon Jones might combat Tom Aspinall. The PFL might generate optimistic PR in 2025. The GFL might truly schedule a present.

Let’s get loopy.

Meshew: No. That’s why this combat is kinda lame. If Fiziev wins, it’s a superb win however he misplaced his earlier two. That’s not getting a title combat. And if Gaethje wins, it’s a superb win however he simply received bolted by Max Holloway in one of the memorable and iconic KOs ever. Neither man is combating for the belt subsequent (barring a variety of issues occurring). As an alternative this combat is a bout to see who fights Dan Hooker, which is what we already had, that means we’re simply treading water right here.

AK is true in that if JDM beats Belal, Islam is instantly shifting as much as welterweight, so possibly that helps their case, however even then, it’s most likely Topuria vs. Oliveira or Arman Tsarukyan.

This can be a enjoyable combat that’s in the end meaningless, which kinda sucks given we solely have a number of Gaethje fights left, at most.

Picture by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC through Getty Photographs

3. Exterior of the top-2 fights, who’s the fighter to observe for on this card?

Meshew: The combat to observe is Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya as a result of that’s licensed sauce, however the fighter is my big-small son, Jalin Turner.

I’ve an irrational love of Turner as a result of he’s a freakishly large light-weight with a novel and pleasant recreation and large deficiencies (you like folks for his or her faults, not for being excellent!). Sadly, Turner is on a fairly powerful run proper now and so he’s combating to carry his spot within the top-15 and so he must show he’s nonetheless received the juice. Ignacio Bahamondes is a rattling good fighter however I want Turner to go full Tarantula on him with the membership and sub. I feel he’ll and other people will keep in mind that Jalin Turner is a menace to anybody he steps within the cage with.

Heck: It’s Mauricio Ruffy.

This man, very like his fellow Combating Nerds Jean Silva and Carlos Prates, is much-watch TV. There gained’t be any boring Ruffy fights, however how good is he? Is he a man who can be of a Drew Dober-like ilk the place we’re simply pumped he’s combating and at finest he’s a backend of the top-15 form of man? Or is Ruffy a fighter we’ve to keep watch over that may climb the ranks within the sport’s finest division?

We gained’t totally have our reply Saturday, but when he goes on the market and runs over a veteran like King Inexperienced—who has spoiled many a celebration through the years—I do know I’ll proceed to lean extra in the direction of the latter.

Lee: Folks, it’s me. You understand I’m choosing an Final Fighter winner.

Regardless of being tagged as a prime prospect to observe on the Brazilian scene all the way in which again in 2021, Mairon Santos was inexplicably the second-to-last featherweight fighter picked on TUF 32. “The Legend” outpointed some stiff competitors on his approach to the finale, the place he routed Kaan Ofli in a bit over a spherical to say a match title. Nonetheless a number of months shy of his twenty fifth birthday, Santos is at the moment in Las Vegas underneath the tutelage of Xtreme Couture mastermind Eric Nicksick and has all of the makings of a promising featherweight prospect.

A showcase efficiency over Francis Marshall will put Santos on observe for a giant 2025 marketing campaign and within the hunt for a top-15 spot in 2026.