As we gear up for the Champions League semi-finals, simply two of the 4 golf equipment concerned have title-winning pedigree on this stage.
Barcelona have been champions of Europe on 5 events however are but to succeed in these heights within the post-Lionel Messi period, whereas Inter have dominated the continent 3 times, most not too long ago below Jose Mourinho in 2009-10.
And after every noticed off German opposition within the quarter-finals, Barca routing Borussia Dortmund and Inter coming by means of two tense conferences with Bayern Munich, they’ll face off for a spot on this season’s showpiece.
Barcelona have had two tastes of silverware already this time period, profitable the Supercopa de Espana and extra not too long ago the Copa del Rey, and a clear sweep is now on their agenda.
And although Inter have stumbled within the Serie A title race and crashed out of the Coppa Italia, Simone Inzaghi’s fame as a knockout specialist means they shouldn’t be underestimated.
However who will come out on high in Wednesday’s first leg on the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys? We dive into the perfect Opta details and figures to make sense of a mouthwatering tie.
All eyes on the #UCL pic.twitter.com/bYZhceJzp4
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) April 28, 2025
What’s anticipated?
Forward of the semi-finals getting below means on Tuesday, the Opta supercomputer made Barca second favourites to elevate the well-known previous trophy.
They have been assigned a 27% likelihood of going all the way in which, decrease than Arsenal’s 31% chance however larger than the respective hopes of Paris Saint-Germain (22%) and Inter (19%).
So far as this tie is worried, the Blaugrana are given a 58% likelihood of progressing to Inter’s 42%, with their win chance for the primary leg standing at 55.2%.
The Nerazzurri are solely given a 22.5% likelihood of constructing a first-leg lead on their travels, as they did towards Bayern within the quarters, although they’d absolutely take a draw – deemed a 22.3% likelihood.
Subsequent cease: Barcelona! #ForzaInter #UCL pic.twitter.com/g6WF8CuDiZ
— Inter (@Inter_en) April 16, 2025
The one earlier European Cup/Champions League knockout-stage tie between these two giants was a memorable one, coming on the similar stage of the 2009-10 version.
On that event, Mourinho’s Inter eradicated Pep Guardiola’s Barca – then the reigning champions – 3-2 on mixture, profitable 3-1 at San Siro then limiting the Blaugrana to a 1-0 victory at Camp Nou.
Whereas Inter edged the groups’ largest assembly, they’ve confronted one another on 16 earlier events in Europe general, with Barca profitable eight of these video games (5 attracts, three losses).
The Nerazzurri are unbeaten of their final two towards the Catalan giants, although, enjoying out a 3-3 draw at San Siro and profitable 1-0 on their travels within the 2022-23 Champions League group stage. Barca fell on the first hurdle that marketing campaign, whereas Inter reached the ultimate.
Nonetheless, Barcelona are unbeaten of their six house video games towards Inter within the Champions League (5 wins, one draw).
These 5 house victories are their joint-most towards any opponent within the Champions League/European Cup, additionally beating AC Milan 5 instances, whereas they’ve solely hosted Chelsea extra typically within the competitors with out dropping (seven instances).
Flick runs it again
The 2019-20 season, the conclusion of which was performed behind closed doorways as a result of Covid-19 pandemic, might not dwell lengthy within the reminiscence for a lot of.
Except, after all, you might be Hansi Flick.
His all-conquering Bayern aspect gained a Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal and Champions League treble lower than a 12 months after he took the reins, and he’s now hoping to repeat the trick in his debut season with Barcelona.
The Blaugrana have already captured the Supercopa de Espana and Copa del Rey trophies with dramatic victories over Actual Madrid, with Jules Kounde the extra-time hero as they gained the ultimate of the latter competitors 3-2 final Saturday.
And with a four-point lead over Los Blancos on the high of LaLiga, that is shaping as much as be a really memorable season certainly for the Blaugrana.
Because the flip of the 12 months, Barca have solely misplaced as soon as in 28 video games (22 wins, 5 attracts excluding extra-time), with that defeat coming within the second leg of their quarter-final towards Dortmund, as they took their foot off the gasoline after a 4-0 first-leg win.
They’ve scored 83 targets from 66.99 anticipated targets (xG) for the reason that begin of 2025, changing 58 of their 121 large possibilities.
Their hopes of Champions League glory appeared to have taken an enormous blow when Robert Lewandowski – who has 11 targets within the competitors this marketing campaign – suffered a hamstring harm that may trigger him to overlook each matches towards Inter.
However Ferran Torres deputised capably towards Madrid on Saturday, scoring a significant equaliser to drive additional time. He’s prone to be flanked by Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, two of the Champions League’s star performers in 2024-25.
Yamal and Raphinha have mixed for extra targets than another duo within the Champions League this time period (5 – two Yamal assists, three Raphinha assists), additionally creating essentially the most possibilities for each other of any team-mate pairing (16 – eight every).
Raphinha’s 51 aim involvements in all competitions this season (30 targets, 21 assists) are solely bettered by Mohamed Salah of Liverpool (33 targets, 23 assists) throughout Europe’s high 5 leagues, whereas Yamal has 34 aim involvements (14 targets, 20 assists).
If any workforce is supplied to deal with Lewandowski’s absence, it’s Barca, who’ve averaged 3.1 targets per recreation within the Champions League below Flick. The one club-manager duo with a greater determine within the competitors’s historical past is Flick’s Bayern, with 3.2.
Inter to channel spirit of 2010?
Nonetheless, Barca’s star-studded assault will come up towards an Inter workforce that has already saved eight clear sheets within the Champions League this season.
One other would see them equal the report for many shutouts by an Italian workforce in a single version, held collectively by rivals Milan in 2004-05 and Juventus in 2016-17.
Inzaghi has cast a fame as a knockout specialist since arriving at Inter in 2021, profitable the Coppa Italia twice, the Supercoppa Italiana on three events and main them to the 2023 Champions League last.
He’ll oversee his fiftieth Champions League match right here, changing into the seventh Italian coach to succeed in this milestone; essentially the most for any nation (at the moment stage with Spain).
His 26 wins are already essentially the most by an Italian supervisor by means of their first 50 Champions League matches (one forward of Marcello Lippi, with 25).
And Inzaghi has showcased his game-management expertise on the massive stage as soon as once more this time period. Inter have solely spent 10 minutes and 54 seconds in a dropping place within the Champions League in 2024-25, the shortest complete time of any workforce.
They did fall behind within the second leg of their quarter-final tie versus Bayern, however inside 9 minutes, targets from Lautaro Martinez and Benjamin Pavard had them 2-1 up on the evening and 4-2 forward on mixture.
They showcased a capability to bend however not break – paying homage to Mourinho’s class of 2009-10 – in that tie. Inter confronted 40 pictures throughout their two conferences with Bayern, however the common xG worth of every try was simply 0.09.
However Inter are usually not all about defensive fortitude, with Nicolo Barella able to springing devastating counter-attacks from midfield. He has averaged 7.1 progressive passes per 90 minutes within the Champions League this season, essentially the most of any participant to play at the very least 500 minutes within the competitors.
Of all Barella’s passes, 12% have been progressive (a accomplished cross within the attacking two-thirds of the pitch that strikes the ball at the very least 25% nearer to the aim), the best proportion of any central midfielder on this version.
The Nerazzurri have wobbled domestically in current weeks, going out of the Coppa Italia to Milan and slipping three factors behind Napoli within the race for the Scudetto.
But when anybody is able to irritating Barca, it might simply be the Nerazzurri.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Barcelona – Raphinha
Raphinha has been instantly concerned in 26 targets within the Champions League thus far, in simply 24 appearances (15 targets, 11 assists).
Solely two gamers within the competitors’s historical past have extra aim contributions over their first 25 video games within the competitors – Erling Haaland (36) and Luis Suarez (28).
Inter – Lautaro Martinez
Martinez has scored in every of his final 5 appearances for Inter within the Champions League.
If he finds the web once more right here, he’ll grow to be simply the second South American participant to attain in six consecutive video games within the competitors, after Edinson Cavani (seven for PSG between November 2016 and October 2017).
