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On the eve of the second North London derby of the season, grumbles of discontent are audible amongst supporters of each Arsenal and Tottenham.
Whereas Mikel Arteta’s Gunners have been regular sufficient within the Premier League, trying the most certainly crew to capitalise if runaway leaders Liverpool slip up, back-to-back defeats within the home cups have left them dealing with the prospect of a fifth trophyless season in a row.
Two targets down on the midway stage of their EFL Cup semi-final tie towards Newcastle United and out of the FA Cup, Arsenal have are available for stern criticism in latest days.
Tottenham, in the meantime, have their very own points. Ange Postecoglou’s males lead their very own EFL Cup semi-final tie towards Liverpool and superior within the FA Cup by beating Tamworth on Sunday, however have gained simply considered one of their final eight league video games to sit down twelfth within the desk.
The 2 neighbours do battle on the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday, in what could possibly be considered one of their most necessary conferences of latest years.
However which approach will the sport go, and what are the important thing storylines to look out for? Learn on for our Opta-powered preview.
“We’ll go to Wednesday, one other alternative for us, in all probability on the proper time as properly to get what we deserve, carry out once more and provides our supporters what they deserve as properly.””
Mikel Arteta is eager to maneuver on and put together for our upcoming Premier League north London derby
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) January 12, 2025
What’s anticipated?
As the one crew but to lose a house Premier League recreation this season, Arsenal enter this match as heavy favourites.
Of 10,000 match simulations carried out by the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal gained 64.7% and had been solely crushed in 18.4%, with the remaining 16.9% ending all sq..
Arsenal have gained six of their final eight league video games towards Spurs (one draw, one defeat) and wish to win three in a row towards them for the primary time since January 1989 (a run of 5).
Certainly, following their 1-0 away win in September, Arsenal may full the Premier League double over Tottenham for the fifth time. Solely in 2013-14, nonetheless, have they executed so with out conceding in both match.
Tottenham have solely gained considered one of their final 31 away Premier League video games towards Arsenal, drawing 12 and dropping 18, whereas they’re additionally winless in 13 journeys to the Emirates since a 3-2 victory in November 2010.
Is Havertz the reply?
Whereas Arsenal boast the Premier League’s greatest defensive file in 2024-25 with simply 18 targets conceded, their shortcomings on the different finish of the pitch have been well-documented.
Arsenal common 1.75 anticipated targets (xG) per Premier League recreation in 2024-25, down on their figures from 2023-24 (2.04) and 2022-23 (1.9). Being with out Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka for durations attributable to accidents has not helped their trigger, however the issue in latest weeks has not been creating probabilities, somewhat placing them away.
They dominated towards Newcastle and Manchester United in final week’s cup contests, racking up 3.22 anticipated targets (xG) in every recreation however solely scoring as soon as to underperform their mixed figures by 5.44.
3.22 – Arsenal recorded the identical anticipated targets whole in every of their final two video games towards Newcastle United and Manchester United (3.22), however scored simply as soon as, underperforming their xG by 5.4 targets. Misfiring. pic.twitter.com/TI0OBDYaV6
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) January 13, 2025
Kai Havertz has been singled out for specific criticism in latest days, having missed a number of probabilities in Arsenal’s cup defeats.
Throughout these two matches, Havertz tried 9 photographs, all of them from contained in the penalty space, totalling 1.91 xG. There have been a number of obtrusive misses amongst these efforts, whereas he was additionally the one participant to fail to transform within the penalty shoot-out towards United.
Havertz’s underlying figures within the Premier League this season don’t make for horrible studying, with the previous Chelsea man scoring seven occasions from 7.81 xG for a marginal underperformance.
Nonetheless, amongst all gamers to attain no less than 5 occasions within the competitors this time period, solely Brennan Johnson, Antoine Semenyo and Morgan Rogers have hit the goal with fewer of their photographs than Havertz (50%).
Havertz is the one Arsenal participant with greater than 5 league targets in 2024-25, however many have requested whether or not he’s medical sufficient to steer a title problem. For now, although, Arteta might not have a lot of a alternative.
Gabriel Jesus was carried off on a stretcher towards United, whereas Saka stays a long-term absentee. Havertz is prone to lead the road once more when Spurs go to, and every of his final 11 Premier League targets have are available London. The final Arsenal participant to have an extended such run was Lukas Podolski between December 2012 and April 2014 (12).
Arteta will hope residence comforts can carry the perfect out of Havertz on Wednesday.
Adaptation from Ange?
“It’s simply who we’re, mate”, declared Postecoglou after his Tottenham facet had been thrashed 4-1 by Chelsea in November 2023, having adopted a daring excessive line regardless of being decreased to 9 males. The principle criticism of Postecoglou since he arrived in England has centred on a refusal to tweak his rules within the identify of outcomes.
These shouts have reached a fever pitch in latest weeks, with Tottenham solely taking 5 factors from their final eight Premier League video games, their lone win in that span coming towards backside membership Southampton. Saints (one) and Leicester Metropolis (4) are the one groups to take fewer factors in that point.
Whereas Tottenham survived an enormous scare after they had been taken to additional time by Tamworth within the FA Cup on Sunday, would possibly final week’s EFL Cup first-leg win over Liverpool have proven there’s a totally different facet to Ange-ball?
Spurs had simply 39.9% possession of their 1-0 victory over the Reds, their fourth-lowest share in any recreation beneath Postecoglou.
They performed extra lengthy balls (49) and the next proportion of their passes lengthy (11.7%) towards Liverpool than in every other recreation this season, with Lucas Bergvall’s winner coming after one such cross from Pedro Porro.
Tottenham nonetheless seemed to press excessive, however their insistence on taking part in out from the again was tempered by a realisation that Liverpool are distinctive within the counter-press. An identical method may pay dividends on Wednesday, notably with defenders Future Udogie, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Ben Davies nonetheless sidelined.
Solely Southampton (36) and Aston Villa (23) have made extra errors resulting in photographs within the Premier League than Spurs (21) this season, so a change in the best way they construct up towards the league’s greatest groups has been overdue.
Tottenham have, although, scored essentially the most targets because of opposition errors (11) within the Premier League this time period, so don’t count on them to dial down the press.
As a crew, Spurs have utilized extra pressures within the remaining third than every other facet within the Premier League this marketing campaign (1,321). Striker Dominic Solanke leads the best way amongst all gamers, along with his whole of 386 over 100 greater than the following highest (Erling Haaland, 275).
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Arsenal – Martin Odegaard
Odegaard had a penalty saved by Altay Bayindir with Arsenal and Man United locked at 1-1 on Sunday, and he might be determined to bounce again right here.
Solely Saka (42) and Declan Rice (29) have created extra probabilities for Arsenal than Odegaard (27) within the Premier League this season, regardless of the Norwegian being restricted to 13 appearances.
Tottenham – Son Heung-min
Son has a stable file in North London derbies, solely scoring extra Premier League targets towards Southampton (11), Leicester and Crystal Palace (9 every) than he has managed towards Arsenal (seven).
In the meantime, no participant has supplied extra assists following a ball carry within the Premier League this season than Son (5). His subsequent help will make him the outright help chief for Spurs within the Premier League (presently 68, stage with Darren Anderton).
