Six Nations: England in Q4 crisis? Wales to get wooden spoon?

The 2025 Six Nations started with a bang as France routed Wales, an injury-hit Scotland defeated Italy and Eire got here from behind to down England in acquainted trend.

There’s loads of meals for thought, however are these reactions irrational or authentic? It is time to decide.

Bounce to:

England | Eire | Wales
Scotland | France | Italy

England’s last quarter situation is at disaster stage

Eire got here from behind to beat England 27-22 in Dublin, starting their quest for a third-straight Six Nations title with a bonus-point victory. For England, it was one other second-half collapse, however are these late errors now resembling an emergency?

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

The gamers are adamant they’re on the verge of reversing this pattern, however the stats and patterns say in any other case. No matter England are doing within the last quarter will not be working. It’s a painfully acquainted situation: England forward in and across the hour mark earlier than the match ebbs away. There are far too many sliding doorways moments for this crew, the place they discover themselves slipping down the precipice of a 60-minute meltdown.

It occurred in opposition to France final 12 months within the last match of the 2024 Six Nations: Within the 79th minute, England had been 31-30 up. Ben Earl gave away a no-arms penalty, and Thomas Ramos slotted the penalty to win the match 33-31. It occurred of their two Assessments in opposition to New Zealand in July: Marcus Smith missed three kicks at objective in Dunedin whereas England led 15-13 till the sixty fifth minute when Damian McKenzie slotted a penalty to provide the All Blacks a 16-15 win. Every week later in Auckland, England had been forward by 4 factors till the 61st minute and misplaced 24-17.

Come November, they missed a late penalty and drop-goal in opposition to New Zealand at Twickenham and fell 24-22. Australia scored after the buzzer to win that Take a look at 42-37. In opposition to the Springboks, England had 5 lineouts in South Africa’s 22 within the last quarter and did not return a single level – they fell 29-20. After which got here Eire – England led 10-5 at half time, however then shipped 22 unanswered factors to enter the ultimate 5 minutes 27-10 down, solely to claw their manner again to 27-22.

There is a theme right here. Their capacity to seek out the entrance foot within the last quarter is at disaster ranges.

Forward of Eire, England modified issues up, selecting an 80-minute captain in Maro Itoje and loading their bench with large hitters. Nevertheless it was the identical story. England’s foothold slipped within the 52nd minute as Bundee Aki crashed by Smith, after which within the sixty fourth minute, James Lowe darted by a huge hole in England’s midfield to place Tadhg Beirne over. A Dan Sheehan attempt later, and it was recreation over.

England’s bench influence was negligible, and England had been left selecting by the rubble of yet one more defeat to seek out some positives. — Hamilton

Eire heading in the right direction for 3 titles in a row

No crew within the 142-year historical past of the championship has received three outright titles in three years. Eire, after preventing again to beat England, are actually 4 video games away from finishing that feat … Can they do it?

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

It already appears to be like just like the Spherical 4 match between Eire and France on the Aviva Stadium in Dublin will determine the place this title goes.

Sure, the Six Nations is a splendidly unpredictable beast, and that is why we like it, however Eire can be favourites for his or her journey to Murrayfield subsequent weekend and for his or her date with Wales in Cardiff in Spherical 3. France will fancy their possibilities in opposition to England and it might take the best Italian efficiency in residing reminiscence to cease them of their following conflict in Rome

All eyes can be on Dublin on March 8 the place Eire can be doubtless favourites.

They’re reluctant to speak up their possibilities in Eire, conscious there’s an terrible lot of water nonetheless to cross below the bridge on this championship, however the crew we noticed on Saturday was comfy in their very own pores and skin, and there was an inevitability about the best way they performed: they had been affected person and comfortable to attend for possibilities to come up to snap the match and twist England into defeat.

The power of their bench swung the match again of their favour, and when you have got Dan Sheehan, Jack Conan and Robbie Henshaw all approaching, the opposition should sink a bit of additional into their already exhausted limbs.

Eire are favourites to grow to be the primary crew to win a males’s Six Nations title outright for a 3rd time in a row, however it might be silly to jot down off France. — Hamilton

Wales are destined for the picket spoon

Wales entered this Six Nations seeking to finish a document 12-match shedding streak that stretches again to the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Their first recreation, in opposition to France, could not have gone a lot worse. They failed to attain a degree in Paris in a damning 43-0 defeat. Welsh followers should be fearing the worst from right here, however are they proper to take action?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Dan Biggar is true. The previous Wales and British & Irish Lions fly-half was on pundit responsibility on Friday night, watching Wales’ 43-0 defeat to France and stated afterwards: “For me, this recreation subsequent week is the largest in Welsh rugby for the final 15 or 20 years. I am not saying that light-heartedly. It is an enormous, big match.”

With Wales on a 13-match shedding run, and having equalled their worst-ever document within the championship of seven straight defeats, Wales head to Rome seeking to restore some face.

Warren Gatland would not be drawn on the magnitude of it on a private stage. “It is a vital recreation for Wales, it isn’t about the place it ranks for me,” he stated. “Subsequent week turns into fairly essential for us. We will not conceal away from that. We have to get the monkey off our again.”

In opposition to France, Wales performed with immense spirit however merely did not have the ability to bother Les Bleus‘ defence. They regarded an improved outfit with Liam Williams and Josh Adams again, however the accidents to Owen Watkin and Aaron Wainwright are a blow Gatland can sick afford. The 43-0 defeat would’ve been powerful to abdomen.

However there’s nonetheless a bit to play out on this championship.

You’re feeling Wales will click on at some juncture, they merely need to. Gatland relishes their underdog standing and should discover a technique to flip their siege mentality into outcomes.

They will hope to have Taulupe Faletau again in opposition to Italy however it can want a Gatland masterclass to get them again to profitable methods in Rome. Italy will fancy their possibilities and can welcome Wales as favourites. Italy performed properly in spells in opposition to Scotland however did not win the bodily battles. Wales will look to out-muscle them on Saturday and can look to one way or the other flip desperation into victory. — Hamilton

France will win a Grand Slam

Impressed by some good moments by Antoine Dupont, France acquired off to a super begin in Paris, other than seeing fly-half Romain Ntamack obtain a crimson card for a deal with on Ben Thomas. However was France’s excellent begin the prelude for an ideal event?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

There is a caveat right here, and that’s that France can definitely win a Grand Slam IF Antoine Dupont stays match. It is conceivable that they may win the title ought to he miss a recreation, however something extra could be like changing the engine in a Ferrari: It’d look okay, nevertheless it would not work practically in addition to it ought to.

Preserving any aspect to zero factors (even this Wales aspect) is exceptional within the Six Nations, and the reality is that they by no means regarded like conceding on Friday.

France had been too robust, too organised and too assured from the primary whistle. In addition they confirmed they’ve the depth of their squad to go all the best way. Whereas they will not be afforded the luxurious each week, taking Dupont off after 50 minutes was definitely a flex.

Théo Attissogbé was a worthy substitute, however the return of Damien Penaud to the proper wing from right here on will add much more punch to their assault alongside Leo Bielle-Biarrey on the left. Even the prospect of a number of weeks with out fly-half Ntamack will not fear Fabien Galthié an excessive amount of, with Matthieu Jalibert or Thomas Ramos greater than in a position to fill the void.

As talked about above, this Six Nations appears to be like to be on a crescendo towards March 8. If France can emerge victorious, it is going to be Les Bleus – not Eire – who can be gazing a Grand Slam, however that is still a really tall order. — James Regan

Accidents will wreck Scotland’s championship

Scotland began properly in opposition to Italy, racing to a 19-6 lead, however noticed the Azzurri pull the sport again stage after half-time. It ended with a Scottish victory and a convincing scoreline, however will Gregor Townsend’s depleted squad wrestle to get a foothold this 12 months?

Verdict: OVERREACTION

Scotland had been with out stars reminiscent of Sione Tuipulotu, Dylan Richardson, Scott Cummings and Josh Bayliss, however that didn’t cease them. Whereas they had been shaky within the third quarter of the match in opposition to Italy, Scotland nonetheless had the gamers they wanted for a snug win they usually have the expertise to harm Eire subsequent weekend.

Huw Jones’ hat trick on Saturday proved he has the attacking imaginative and prescient for his or her midfield, whereas both Stafford McDowall (who began) or Tom Jordan (who got here on after 55 minutes) simply must do the fundamentals in defence within the absence of Tuipulotu alongside him to get Scotland by.

They nonetheless have the likes of Zander Fagerson, Pierre Schoeman and Rory Darge getting Scotland on the entrance foot. Plus, Finn Russell will doubtless have extra of an influence this event than he did in opposition to Italy.

We noticed sufficient for probably the most half from Townsend’s aspect to know they’re nonetheless a risk, even with their mammoth harm record.

It is going to be a troublesome process in opposition to Eire subsequent week: They have not received in opposition to Eire of their final 10 Assessments, relationship again to 2018, with only one win within the final 15, relationship again to 2014.

It could be straightforward to jot down Scotland off, however the problem for Townsend is to place a hearth below his aspect. What higher manner to do this than urge them to make some historical past. — Regan

Aggressive Italy are right here to remain

Italy earned two wins in final 12 months’s Six Nations. It felt like a exceptional feat and an indication that Italy had been gaining power. They did not fairly kick on after that, although, with defeats to Samoa and Argentina adopted by an enormous nervy win over Georgia.

After solely a briefly promising defeat to Scotland, can Italy be the shock bundle on this 12 months’s championship, too?

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

They will be disillusioned with the best way they began, however Italy confirmed some struggle to carry it again to 19-19 in opposition to Scotland after being 19-6 down. That very same spirit is what drove their best-ever run in final 12 months’s championship.

Head coach Gonzalo Quesada can be reaffirming to his gamers that they are in numerous waters now: Everyone seems to be taking them very severely this 12 months, that means they will have to boost their recreation every week. There can be harder exams than Scotland, but additionally extra winnable ones, too.

That brings us to subsequent Saturday. As talked about, Gatland’s aspect can be keen to not lengthen their shedding streak to 14, however Italy, in contrast to years previous, have the gamers to harm them in the event that they’re at their finest.

Quesada will need extra from fly-half Paolo Garbisi, who did not hit the bottom working in Edinburgh, whereas Ange Capuozzo was largely un-influential on the wing. If these two can get their palms on the ball and create extra, Italy might notch an early win and ship a sign that they are not going anyplace. — Regan

– Tom Hamilton’s evaluation from Dublin: One other painful case of déjà vu for England
– James Regan’s take from Paris: Antoine Dupont produces virtuoso show
– NEWS: Former England captain Jamie George returns to squad
– WATCH: ‘Strain rising’ on Borthwick following Eire loss
– Six Nations and Girls’s Six Nations: Full fixture record
– Six Nations historical past, previous winners, extra