UFC 322 takes place this Saturday at Madison Sq. Backyard in New York Metropolis, and the co-main occasion options presumably the best girls’s MMA struggle ever assembled: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili for the ladies’s strawweight title.
The matchup pits two all-time greats, close to the height of their powers, in a superfight between divisional champions. Positive, Zhang doesn’t technically nonetheless have the strawweight title, however everybody is aware of the rating heading into this struggle. Champ vs. Champ fights are uncommon in MMA and even rarer in girls’s MMA, and a matchup between the 2 GOATs of their divisions is unprecedented. So can Zhang develop into the second feminine two-division champion in UFC historical past? Or will Valentina Shevchenko proceed her dominance at 125 kilos?
Paths to victory for Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 322
Let’s begin right here: Shevchenko is the undisputed best flyweight of all time, and has a reliable case to be the best girls’s fighter to ever step in a cage. With somebody like that, it’s protected to say they’re good at nearly all the things, and that’s very true for Shevchenko. She hails from a muay Thai background, and that’s nominally the place her bread is buttered, however Shevchenko is the religious inheritor to Georges St-Pierre in that she is a kickboxer however is arguably higher as a grappler. Each will come into play right here.
The factor about Shevchenko is that her components for achievement by no means adjustments, simply small tweaks. Her superpower is controlling the space of fights on the toes, and so she’s going to all the time look to try this at the beginning, maintaining opponents at vary after which countering as they attempt to are available in. She then mixes in takedowns from pictures and the clinch, the place she will bully individuals from high place.
This plan ought to work pretty successfully in opposition to Zhang, at the least, the primary part. Zhang is a keen striker, however not the craftiest. Most of her success on the toes has come in opposition to people who find themselves outright unhealthy there, however in opposition to rangy kickboxers like Rose Namajunas, she’s struggled. If the UFC was a online game, Shevchenko is the tip boss of vary administration, so merely going with Plan A ought to make numerous headway for the champion. Then, it’s a matter of blending in her personal takedowns at opportune moments.
The largest concern I see for Shevchenko is that she’s develop into more and more liable to lapses of focus, particularly whereas grappling, and so willingly partaking in floor work comes with threat. Shevchenko can be greatest served by getting again to her toes when taken down, and never enjoying round with Zhang on the ground, besides in dominant positions.
Paths to victory for Zhang Weili at UFC 322
Zhang is probably not the undisputed best strawweight of all time, however at this level, she is the consensus one, and deserving of her spot on the Mount Rushmore of ladies’s MMA. Like Shevchenko, Zhang is nominally a kickboxer, however her true energy lies in her skill to combine the martial arts. Zhang’s title reign has been outlined by taking her opponents to the part the place they’re weakest and utilizing her distinctive physicality to dominate them there. However that’s a tricky row to hoe in opposition to Shevchenko.
That’s to not say Zhang is with out choices. Whereas she might be not “pretty much as good” as Shevchenko on the toes, she has some good instruments for the matchup, in the beginning, her skill to sport plan.
Zhang and her workforce come into matchups with targeted tactical changes for every opponent, and people are particularly more likely to have success in opposition to Shevchenko, whose sport is fairly naked bones. Alexa Grasso gained the title by ready for Shevchenko to spin, and people kinds of small home windows nonetheless exist. The largest one for Zhang, I believe, is Shevchenko’s reliance on countering. As a result of Shevchenko desires to set the space after which assault the coming into fighter, she’s open to counters off her counters, baiting her into throwing after which returning. And as Zhang needs to be sooner, she will discover success on this means.
One other avenue to assault is to easily assault. Shevchenko is a notoriously low-volume fighter, and thus, rounds can get tight. Accepting the concept that you could be get hit, however strolling via to place up extra quantity can rating factors with the judges. Manon Fiorot, Taila Santos, and Alexa Grasso all had shut fights with Shevchenko partially as a result of they did extra stuff than she did for lengthy stretches of the struggle. If Zhang doesn’t let the right be the enemy of the great, she’s bought an opportunity to do the identical.
As, in my view, the best girls’s struggle ever put collectively, there are practically an infinite variety of questions heading into this matchup. However for the sake of time, I’m going to give attention to the most important ones that I consider will resolve the result of the matchup.
- How does Zhang fare shifting as much as 125? It’s all the time laborious to foretell how a shift in weight class will have an effect on a fighter, and far of Zhang’s success could be traced again to her physicality. I don’t assume she might be overmatched by Shevchenko on this regard, but when she is, or simply can’t fall again on it, that’s going to be an enormous concern.
- How a lot does Shevchenko have left? Shevchenko might solely be a 12 months older than Zhang, however she’s spent a decade longer within the struggle sport. Shevchenko has been preventing since 2003! She has 30 MMA fights, over 90 kickboxing bouts, and two boxing bouts. That’s a lot mileage. It appears clear that Shevchenko has misplaced at the least a bit of bit off her fastball, however sufficient to make the distinction?
- Has Zhang truly realized to wrestle defensively? Zhang had unimaginable success in opposition to Tatiana Suarez within the wrestling division, however a few of that’s as a result of Suarez didn’t produce other choices. Beforehand, Zhang has struggled in takedown protection in opposition to fighters who mix the martial arts properly, so can she maintain up right here?
- Who makes the final adjustment? I strongly suspect this struggle goes lengthy, and when it does, how does every fighter modify? Each girls have a deep bag of instruments to tug from, and if one is taking up, how does the shedding fighter reply? And is there a response to the response? Fights on the very high degree of the game, which that is, all the time have strikes and countermoves. What’s going to they be?
This struggle seems like a coin flip to me. Just a few years in the past, I might have confidently chosen Shevchenko because the way more well-rounded fighter, with a dimension benefit. Now, although, Shevchenko is on the decline, and Zhang is probably not (she additionally might be; she, too, is older). That basically evens the percentages on this one. Nonetheless, I can’t assist however consider Zhang’s current success and see that it got here in opposition to very restricted fighters. In Shevchenko, she faces a fighter restricted solely by her personal selections, and that poses a major problem. I believe this might be a really shut struggle, however Shevchenko’s skill to manage distance would be the deciding issue.
Valentina Shevchenko def. Zhang Weili through unanimous resolution (48-47 x3)
