New Year’s Mailbag: Sleeper UFC contender for 2025 and the upcoming broadcast rights deal

Pleased New 12 months everyone!

That’s proper, we’re absolutely into 2025, a lot in order that the primary UFC occasion of the yr is sort of upon us. However let’s be sincere, UFC Vegas 101 isn’t anybody’s thought of a barnburner, so for the primary mailbag of the yr, I requested for questions on something your hearts need and also you loyal readers responded in type. So let’s discuss concerning the yr to come back, which divisions to keep watch over, and naturally, Conor McGregor.

Sleeper contender of 2025

“Pleased new yr Jed!

“In the event you needed to decide one fighter in any division at the moment ranked exterior the highest 5 to change into UFC champion in 2025, who would you decide?”

An excellent query to kick of the yr and one which, for my part, doesn’t have an apparent reply. In any case, go have a look at our champions predictions for 2025: in case you don’t depend champions shifting as much as get a second title, solely two fighters are even talked about that may meet that normal, and a kind of is Amanda Nunes! Positive, Nunes isn’t at the moment ranked, however that doesn’t precisely really feel prefer it speaks to the center of this query.

So, let’s suss this out.

Bantamweight, featherweight, strawweight, ladies’s flyweight, and girls’s bantamweight are all out. Every of these weight lessons has two or extra contenders in line who’re within the prime 5 proper now, so it’s principally not possible. Middleweight and heavyweight are additionally impossible as they’ve received just a few apparent contenders in line, and heavyweight has the entire Jon Jones uncertainty to it.

That leaves us with mild heavyweight, welterweight, light-weight, and flyweight as apparent contenders. Mild heavyweight appears unlikely as a result of if Alex Pereira defends will probably be in opposition to Magomed Ankalaev, after which it’s both rematch or heavyweight. Light-weight feels comparable with Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. And welterweight is a little bit of a cluster with a bunch of names within the combine, however none of them prone to beat both Belal Muhammad or Shavkat Rakhmonov. Which leaves us with flyweight.

Contemplating the 2 title challengers to Alexander Pantoja in 2024 the place each well-outside the highest 5 (Steve Erceg wasn’t even prime 10 I don’t consider and Kai Asakura wasn’t within the UFC), it’s a powerful contender proper out of the gate. On prime of that, there’s already a contender exterior of the top-five who’s near a title shot: Manel Kape. Kape takes on Kai Asakura in March, and if he wins, that’s a assured title shot. No person else exterior of the top-five of their weight class has as clear a path to the belt, and if Kape fights like he did his final day trip, he’s a professional menace to Pantoja.

So, I’m going with Manel Kape.

Optimism

“Given what went down within the sport this previous yr, what offers you trigger for optimism in 2025?”

My New 12 months’s Decision for 2025 was to be extra optimistic as regards to MMA. Good issues are going to occur! The UFC pays Jon Jones to combat Tom Aspinall! Fighters will cease making an attempt to maneuver up in weight instantly after successful titles! Everybody shall be cool!

That being mentioned, 2024 was not precisely a brilliant yr within the sport of MMA. The UFC went to the APEX 17 instances and every time someway felt worse than the final. In 2024, greater than another yr, actually felt just like the followers had been being extracted from reasonably than catered to. Now, there have been undeniably some highlights, and folks will bear in mind these greater than they bear in mind the general drop in high quality, however the level stays there was plenty of meh this previous yr.

(Additionally, I’m not going to dive into the unhappy finish to the primary fighter lawsuit. It’s what it’s, I hope the fighters in want shall be higher after they receives a commission.)

Nonetheless, I’m optimistic that 2025 will convey a greater expertise for followers on a week-to-week foundation. For one factor, this can be a contract yr for the UFC. The published rights deal is about to be negotiated and as with all contract yr in any sport, that tends to convey out the very best performances from those that stand to receives a commission because of this. I consider the UFC goes to spend the subsequent six to 12 months delivering the products.

On prime of that, the promotion has been incentivized to get out of the APEX extra typically. Principally each occasion in 2024 broke a gate file for no matter venue the UFC went to, and whereas a cynical individual would possibly have a look at that and say “They didn’t add seats, that simply means they’re charging extra,” the UFC doesn’t care. It’s all revenue to them, they usually stand to earn more money happening the street than they do internet hosting 20 occasions a yr of their health club, which means higher playing cards for the followers.

Look, perhaps issues all go bitter rapidly and we proceed on this street in the direction of mediocrity that the UFC has been on for the previous a number of years, however the place’s the enjoyable in heading into that with the dour resignation of males strolling to the gallows? Dare to be an optimist!

Broadcast Rights

“All of us count on Netflix to make a bid for the UFC which may imply plenty of nice issues.

“Suppose a deal doesn’t get carried out – does it open the door for one more promotion like GFL/PFL and if that’s the case, does this transfer the needle in any way in being a viable competitor to the UFC?”

First, I’d be shocked if Netflix doesn’t no less than get a bit of the UFC on this upcoming negotiation. Netflix has an apparent curiosity in shifting into dwell sports activities and there merely aren’t that many broadcast rights that it will probably purchase proper now. Plus, Netflix already has the WWE and so it appears virtually too apparent for TKO to lump them each collectively and make Netflix the house of fight sports activities leisure, no less than in some style.

However let’s say that doesn’t occur, does that open the door for GFL? Probably not. ONE Championship is broadcast on Amazon Prime and that doesn’t appear to have gotten them over with the broader American public. And, reality be instructed, I’m not even certain PFL may get on Netflix. Simply because I need to spend some huge cash to purchase a Porsche and I don’t get it doesn’t imply I need to spend much less cash to purchase a Gremlin. I wished to purchase a Porsche, not simply purchase a automotive.

Folks want to grasp that there isn’t any competing with the UFC. They’ve an ironclad monopoly on MMA which can’t be crushed by exterior competitors. The one method the PFL can legitimately compete with the UFC is both a) foyer and get the Ali Act carried out for MMA (which it’s transparently absurd that it isn’t however I digress) or b) hope the fighters win the second fighter lawsuit which seeks injunctive reduction within the type of contractual adjustments. And let’s be sincere, provided that Dana White and the UFC have an in depth relationship with the soon-to-be President of america, neither of these issues are occurring.

The sport is gained, y’all. It’s over.

World Struggle League

“May GFL be asserting identified fighters’ names simply as a media play? That means, these older expansive fighters are a part of the GFL, however they gained’t be drafted. Subsequently, GFL doesn’t must pay outrageous baggage as a result of the fighters that may really combat are unknown and low-cost?”

I extremely doubt it. My take is that the GFL is asserting fighters to attempt to drum up curiosity, but when a number of the numbers being thrown round by fighters are even half correct, this factor isn’t getting off the bottom.

Conor McGregor

“Does Conor McGregor return to the UFC?”

I wrote about this earlier than so I gained’t rehash it intimately, however Conor McGregor’s authorized difficulties make it extra doubtless he returns to the UFC in 2025. Beforehand, McGregor had no actual purpose to come back again to combating past his ego. Now, his picture is severely tarnished, Hollywood gained’t take him again, and he must rebuild himself. The place to try this is within the place he constructed himself as much as begin with. And it’s not just like the UFC has requirements and gained’t welcome him again.

Conor fights in 2025. Possibly even twice.

Finest Division in 2025

“In the event you may solely watch one division this yr, which wouldn’t it be? Based mostly on expertise/matchups/and so on. light-weight could be the simple reply but when Islam wins in just a few weeks we most likely solely see the belt defended as soon as if he goes as much as welterweight (or mild heavy weight proper lol).”

The reply is at all times, at all times light-weight. It’s the very best division within the sport, the deepest division, and is residence to love, the eight most enjoyable fighters on the planet. Random light-weight fights between top-40 guys are absolute barnburners, and oh, by the best way, the champion is the highest pound-for-pound fighter within the sport. Light-weight is the one right reply.

However setting apart light-weight, I’ll give some like to middleweight. I don’t suppose 185 kilos is likely one of the finest divisions within the sport, however it’s a very foolish, very enjoyable division. A ton of my favourite weirdos compete at middleweight and in case you have a look at the schedule for this yr already, there’s plenty of high quality middleweight bouts set. Positive, whenever you get down into the APEX fodder, issues gained’t be as enjoyable as bantamweight or featherweight, however these weight lessons don’t have Dricus du Plessis and Michel Pereira and Reinier de Ridder. Give me middleweight as my runner-up.

Thanks for studying and because of everybody who despatched in tweets (Xs?)! Do you have got any burning questions on issues no less than considerably associated to fight sports activities? You then’re in luck as a result of you may ship your tweets to me, @JedKMeshew, and I’ll reply my favourite ones! It doesn’t matter in the event that they’re topical or insane, simply as long as they’re good. Thanks once more, and see y’all subsequent week.