Just one driver has completed each aggressive session in System 1 this season within the high 5, and they aren’t driving a McLaren or a Purple Bull.
George Russell has delivered a particularly constant begin to 2025 up to now, even when the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix was his Mercedes crew’s least aggressive outing of the yr so far. Matching his season’s-worst results of fifth place — additionally achieved in Japan the place Russell was on the tail of Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc for almost all of the race — Russell has slipped barely additional again within the early championship battle.
However that’s no actual shock in a Mercedes automobile that seems to simply lack that peak efficiency that will put him in place to battle for victories. Russell has threatened in qualifying however has solely had one front-row begin up to now this yr.
Constant performances whereas the extremely rated Kimi Antonelli learns the ropes have been precisely what Mercedes wanted from Russell up to now this yr, as he has seamlessly moved right into a crew chief position following the departure of Lewis Hamilton.
And it’s not as if Russell was in Hamilton’s shadow previous to that, getting the higher of his teammate within the qualifying head-to-head and matching him in different metrics throughout their three years collectively in what was usually a temperamental and uncompetitive automobile.
All of it provides to as much as the 27-year-old being essentially the most in-demand driver who’s presently out of contract in 2026. The one drawback is, there’s one other driver who may very well be out of contract if a efficiency launch clause is triggered, and they’re in even greater demand.
Max Verstappen’s future has been the supply of hypothesis for over a yr now at an unstable Purple Bull crew, and feedback from Helmut Marko forward of the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix solely served to additional gasoline the intrigue.
There aren’t any scarcity of suitors if Verstappen turns into obtainable, however the primary two locations which have been spoken about persistently are Aston Martin and Mercedes. Any point out of Ferrari solely got here because of a query in Jeddah asking him why he hadn’t been linked to the Scuderia on the similar time.
If you happen to take the previous, then it does really feel like house can be made for Verstappen, regardless of contracted drivers at current. Whereas ought to or not it’s a Mercedes seat, it’s each arduous to envisage that pairing being alongside Russell, but in addition feels much less possible that the British driver would have fairly as many choices if he had been the one changed.
And it’s actually not that far-fetched to suppose Russell may discover himself available on the market, regardless of the spectacular performances he has been delivering. Williams crew principal James Vowles may need voiced his opinion that Verstappen was not the fitting match for Mercedes, however he additionally admitted the four-time world champion would deliver further efficiency — “I don’t suppose anybody within the room would deny that he’s extraordinary in what he can do” — and that’s all the time essentially the most compelling argument.
Mercedes was unable to supply Verstappen a fast pathway to F1 again in 2014, not like Purple Bull and Toro Rosso, and crew boss Toto Wolff may properly have felt a second probability to signal him may by no means come round. If that probability is now on the desk amid the drop in competitiveness and common volatility at Purple Bull, can he actually afford to move it up once more?
This yr’s Mercedes has been a constant if not fairly high performer, a state of affairs that presents each alternatives and challenges for Russell. Peter Fox/Getty Photos
It’s a particularly robust query to reply, and that in itself ought to be taken as an enormous praise by Russell. The dynamic inside Mercedes actually appears to be a constructive one this yr, and at any time when the automobile has been able to profitable races over the previous three years, Russell has been within the combine.
Of the crew’s 4 wins final yr, he was combating for victory earlier than reliability points stopped him in Silverstone; he crossed the road first earlier than being disqualified for being marginally underweight in Belgium; and took victory in Austria and Las Vegas.
Russell’s proven the abdomen for a battle, too, courtesy of his extraordinarily public falling out with Verstappen in direction of the top of final season. It was a state of affairs that would have led Mercedes down a path of burning bridges, however finally did not more than make it robust to image the pair alongside one another in the identical crew.
If additional automobile enhancements don’t arrive this season, however the present impression that Mercedes could have the perfect energy unit in 2026 proves right, then it opens up the likelihood for a real title problem subsequent yr. And if it was a repeat of 2014 — the place Mercedes confronted no true problem for 3 years — then Russell and Antonelli may show to be the proper mixture.
However McLaren has thrown a wrench within the works by beating Mercedes persistently with its personal engine over the previous two years, and its technical crew underneath Andrea Stella actually seems able to offering stern opposition. The large dominance of greater than a decade in the past seems unlikely, and the tiniest positive aspects may properly show essential.
So Russell may be very a lot within the store window proper now. Primarily he wants to go away Mercedes with little doubt that he’ll win the crew championships if given the automobile, and that it doesn’t must go after Verstappen. He’s up to now doing an excellent job of that, but when there’s a single weak point uncovered, then the attraction of Verstappen will develop even larger than its already very excessive stage.
On the similar time, whereas the 2018 System 2 champion deserves a front-running seat, typically circumstances go in opposition to you, as Carlos Sainz discovered final yr. So Russell and his crew can be silly to not have some feelers out to gauge curiosity from elsewhere, particularly given how few seats are undoubtedly obtainable after final yr’s reshuffling.
All of it provides up for a wierd state of affairs for Russell, who’s doing completely nothing incorrect when it comes to his performances, and there wouldn’t precisely be many eyebrows raised if a brand new deal was out of the blue introduced after a brief renegotiation interval.
However for so long as Verstappen stays probably in play, then there’s all the time more likely to be a query mark over his seat nearly no matter what Russell does, and easily dealing with the strain of that situation may very well be an necessary think about how his future performs out.
