Catalan MotoGP practice pace suggests Marc Marquez may get his title wish

The inexperienced of the leaves have barely begun to fade and already, in early September, we stand on the precipice of the 2025 MotoGP world championship being determined. For all intents and functions, the guide is sealed on the title. Marc Marquez has executed the entire laborious yards to do every little thing however assure it mathematically.

That shot might nicely are available simply over every week’s time when the paddock swaps the commercial surrounds of the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the picturesque Misano shoreline on the San Marino Grand Prix.

Marc Marquez, as of Friday night on 5 September, leads the 2025 standings by 175 factors. Ought to he maintain a bonus of a minimum of 185 factors over Alex Marquez on the finish of the Catalan Grand Prix, then he will be topped world champion at Misano if the entire playing cards fall his approach.

It’s not overstating it, then, to recommend the dash and grand prix at Barcelona are an important races of the season.

The Misano coronation risk has been on the desk for a while. However Marc Marquez has repeatedly brushed it apart. After the Hungarian Grand Prix, his seventh 37-point weekend of the yr and tenth major race victory, he stated he needed his championship to be awarded in both Japan or Indonesia due to what it will imply for his youthful brother if it occurred at Misano.

He repeated that on Thursday in Spain: “I want to have the match level as quickly as attainable, however I want to have it in Japan or Indonesia as a result of if I’ve it in Misano, it means my brother had a catastrophe weekend right here in Catalunya. If I hold centered, it is a matter of time. However for this, I favor a superb weekend for my brother than the ‘match ball’ in Misano.”

Alex Marquez’s current kind has left so much to be desired. He suffered a double non-score at Brno, whereas a Joan Mir collision left him with an extended lap penalty for Austria. He was on the rostrum within the dash in Spielberg however solely tenth within the grand prix. He acquired a grid penalty in Hungary for impeding, might do not more than eighth within the dash and was 14th within the grand prix after a crash.

“We have to movement and we are able to’t make errors in the important thing moments of the weekend,” he advised the official MotoGP web site after ending Friday at Barcelona third. “I believe that is the factor that we did within the final weekends and we put every little thing within the garbage a bit bit.”

Barcelona is a circuit Marc Marquez considers to be a weak one. For Alex Marquez, it’s one the place he immediately clicked with the GP24 final November within the post-season take a look at. If there was a weekend to cease the skid he’s in, it’s this one.

Delaying his elder brother’s coronation is, in the end, a futile train. However that isn’t essentially the purpose. At one stage in 2025, Alex Marquez was his brother’s closest challenger. On the very least, he must get again to these methods and present that he can hold Marc Marquez on his toes subsequent yr.

Marc Marquez nearer than anticipated, however threats are plentiful at bogey circuit

After 14 rounds of the marketing campaign, Marc Marquez actually hasn’t been tripped up very a lot. He did himself out of a certain fireplace win whereas main at COTA, whereas impatience at Jerez contributed to a useless crash that opened the door for Alex Marquez to take his first victory.

He was fortunate with the timing of a purple flag at Silverstone. However, if we’re to select a comparable ‘weak’ venue for the eight-time world champion, Barcelona and Silverstone aren’t too dissimilar. Each are quick right-handed circuits the place success has been restricted. At Barcelona, Marquez has received simply twice within the final 12 years.

However at Silverstone, he was second within the dash and third within the grand prix. So, when Marquez talks about reducing expectations for a circuit he isn’t keen on – even along with his admission on Thursday that he has to work more durable on quick right-handed tracks attributable to his 2020 humerus damage – the worst case remains to be backside step of the rostrum.

In a rarity of current occasions, he didn’t prime any session on Friday. That honour went to KTM (extra on the Austrian contingent later). On the finish of Observe, Marquez was fourth, second-best of the Ducatis and about 0.224s off the tempo set by Brad Binder.

Not that that is has been a problem. He was off the entrance row at Silverstone, Assen and Crimson Bull Ring, and was on the rostrum in each – within the latter two, he received each races. Tempo-wise, he was so much stronger than even he anticipated.

“The quickest when it comes to tempo is Alex, however for Montmelo it wasn’t unhealthy,” he advised the media on Friday.

Certainly, as you’ll be able to see within the above desk, Alex Marquez was barely sooner than his elder brother at a median tempo of 1m39.824s versus 1m39.924s. Each Ducati riders had been sooner than the 2 main KTMs on the timesheets.

Each Marquez brothers did their work on medium rubber, with Alex Marquez going barely longer when it comes to stint size and the general age of the tyre. Intriguingly, Alex Marquez additionally appeared like he had a bit extra late-race tempo than what Marc Marquez has been famed for this yr. The Gresini rider did a 1m39.990s on the penultimate lap of our pattern, whereas Marc Marquez was within the low 1m40s.

Given Marc Marquez’s misgivings about Barcelona, there may be an argument available that this must be a priority for the remaining as there may be clear positive aspects to be made. And that’s one thing he has been good at since he jumped on the Ducati final yr.

However, Alex Marquez was quick with out being all that pleased with what his bike was in a position to do.

“Nonetheless there are some issues there to repair, particularly on the entrance a part of the bike, which isn’t turning as I need on the quick corners,” he stated. “So, it’s one thing that I’m completely satisfied as a result of nonetheless we have now some margin to enhance and that is one thing actually optimistic.”

The very fact his GP24 isn’t turning within the quick corners proper now’s purpose to encourage confidence in Alex Marquez. Within the last sector of the lap, which options the quick downhill rights of Turns 13 and 14 (in addition to the lengthy radius left of Flip 10) he was second general and simply over a tenth away from his older brother.

If Alex Marquez can proceed what he began on Friday, then there may be virtually no excuse for him to not go all through to the grand prix because the favorite.

KTM confirming up to date bike is a aggressive bundle

Whereas it wasn’t a shock to see Pedro Acosta on the sharp finish of proceedings throughout Friday’s motion, it was a bit uncommon that Brad Binder was the one to see out the day quickest of all.

That’s no slight towards the double MotoGP winner, however his one lap pace in 2025 has left so much to be desired. He has a better of sixth on the grid this yr, however has solely seen Q2 5 occasions (together with this weekend).

Race pace has typically not been a problem for the South African, however hoisting himself up the grid to raised beginning positions is what he wants to essentially reap the rewards of his tempo.

Binder defined on Friday that the updates dropped at the RC16 in Austria coupled with a change in strategy to how he tackles time assaults was the important thing to his pace on Friday. Alex Marquez says he wasn’t stunned that KTM was quick, however was stunned by simply how a lot.

“I imply, I used to be anticipating that – however not as quick as they’re,” he stated. “Particularly it appears to be like like all of the KTMs. I bear in mind within the occasions when it was Pol [Espargaro] or Miguel [Oliveira], on the tracks the place it was fairly low-grip they had been in a position to be actually quick.” KTM’s final dry climate win got here at Barcelona in 2021 with Oliveira.

Three of the 4 KTMs made it into Q2, with solely Maverick Vinales the outlier. However that’s not likely a touch upon what his potential is. That is his first spherical again since Austria and he’s nonetheless feeling the consequences from the shoulder he injured in Germany again in July.

Acosta, Binder and Enea Bastianini –  who did crash on the finish of PR – all did their race working on gentle rubber. Bastianini was the faster of the three, at a median tempo of 1m39.920s on a tyre that had 15 laps on it by the top. Solely Alex Marquez was sooner.

With Barcelona all the time a tyre race, Bastianini’s conservation of his rear rubber is one thing that might spur him onto a victory on Sunday. If he can hook up qualifying, and he has been doing that of late, he’s for the time being the most important risk from the KTM secure – although not by a lot.

Acosta reckons this flip of tempo from the KTM will be attributed partially to different producers struggling extra when grip situations are low, as they all the time are at Barcelona.

“I’m fairly completely satisfied how the bike is working,” he stated. “It’s [not doing] something particular, however perhaps the others manufacturers undergo a bit extra and we keep our stage. Possibly it may be this. Keep in mind how briskly Brad was in each races final yr. I used to be fairly aggressive within the first one. For this, we have now to simply not suppose a lot in regards to the end result, have enjoyable and hold working.”

Podiums in two of the final three grands prix is proof {that a} first win of the season shouldn’t be far-off for KTM. The Ducatis, proper now, nonetheless have a small benefit. And a direct Q2 look for Aprilia’s Marco Bezzecchi retains him the risk he has been for a while, even when his race tempo on Friday isn’t fairly as robust because it may very well be.

However Barcelona appears to be like, to this point, like probably the most vital proof of a KTM resurgence.

Bagnaia’s hope shortly turned to hopelessness on Friday in Barcelona

There was a really large a part of me that thought after I got here to jot down this evaluation of follow on the Catalan Grand Prix that we’d be a real victory problem from Pecco Bagnaia.

His Hungarian Grand Prix actually couldn’t have gone a lot worse, however Sunday yielded what appeared to be a major set-up turnaround that crammed him with confidence coming to a circuit he received at twice final yr.

However he ends Friday despondent having not even lifted himself out of the highest 20 in both session.

Bagnaia’s FP1 wasn’t helped by a technical concern with one among his bikes in FP1. However the Hungary set-up made no distinction. “Even worse”, in actual fact, was how he described it, including: “I do not know what to say anymore, truthfully, as a result of in the long run it is all the time the identical story. Actually, I am actually on the restrict, we do not know the place to go.”

The double world champion has been pissed off at factors, whereas at occasions additionally accepting of his personal half to play on this funk. However right this moment appeared prefer it was as little as he might get. And now the query arises as to the place does he go from right here?

He isn’t hopeful of a turnaround on Saturday. He doesn’t even have race tempo that gives a lot encouragement, with a run on the medium rear figuring out at a median of 1m40.228s relative to 1m39.942s for team-mate Marc Marquez. Bagnaia wasn’t the one GP25 struggling. Fabio Di Giannantonio was seventeenth.

However there is no such thing as a state of affairs the place Di Giannantonio must be a reference for a rider of Bagnaia’s calibre. And Ducati boss Davide Tardozzi clearly recognises this. He advised Sky Italy after FP1: “We count on Pecco to do his half to unravel these issues. He should assist us assist him: we want him to focus extra on overcoming the difficulties, to suppose extra in regards to the rider he’s and the way good he’s.”

In easy phrases: Ducati doesn’t have rather more it will probably provide by means of the bike and it wants Bagnaia to push by the issues along with his expertise. That’s simpler stated than executed. And it additionally looks like an impossibility now at this stage of 2025 given the psychological battering this example has exacted on Bagnaia.

Bagnaia main residence Marquez in November to win the Solidarity Grand Prix – his eleventh victory of the marketing campaign – and narrowly miss out on a 3rd premier class title appears so far-off now on Friday 5 September 2025…