UFC 318 Paths to Victory: Can Dustin Poirier win the trilogy against Max Holloway for a fairytale ending?

UFC 318 takes place on Saturday night, with Max Holloway defending his ‘BMF’ title in opposition to Dustin Poirier. It’s a trilogy bout the place Poirier gained each of the primary two conferences, however all of that takes a backseat to the largest storyline of the week, the top of Poirier’s illustrious profession.

Saturday would be the last time “The Diamond” makes the stroll to the octagon, doing so in entrance of his hometown crowd in New Orleans, in a pay-per-view occasion constructed to ship him off in fashion. Can Poirier do it one final time, or will Holloway spoil the weekend and change into the primary man to efficiently defend the BMF title?

Let’s dive in and see.

Paths to victory for Max Holloway at UFC 318

At this level in his profession, what extra is there to be stated about Max Holloway? The person is a former champion, a first-ballot Corridor of Famer, owns quite a lot of UFC information, and he’s nonetheless solely 33 years outdated. The truth is, in lieu of speaking about all his unimaginable statistics, simply take a look at this graphic.

Holloway is sort of actually in a world of his personal in relation to quantity. When “Blessed” fights, you recognize what’s coming: a Tasmanian Satan whirlwind of punches, seemingly with out finish. Solely now, it’s not simply punches. For a lot of his profession, Holloway was nearly completely a boxer, however lately, he’s added a kicking sport to his arsenal as properly, together with spinning kicks to the physique that essentially modified his matchup with Gaethje. Although Holloway is already 15 years into his battle profession, the person continues to be including new wrinkles to his sport.

He’ll want them on Saturday. Although it was a very long time in the past — and Holloway is significantly better than he was then — Poirier’s defensive craft, various toolbox, and energy gave Holloway numerous hassle of their rematch. The issue was obvious to Holloway within the second, as he repeatedly instructed his nook Poirier was “blocking humorous.” That Holloway didn’t have sufficient instruments to vary issues up. This Holloway does, and he’ll have to lean into these new weapons.

The basic problem Holloway has to resolve on this battle is that Poirier is an equally expert boxer, however packs extra energy than “Blessed.” Which means that equal exchanges aren’t equal in any respect. And with Poirier’s protection being so tight in opposition to the boxing of Holloway, permitting him to land clear counters to disrupt Max’s elongated combos, Holloway wants different instruments, not simply to attain with, however to open up his bread and butter stuff.

The kicks will likely be a giant assist on this regard. Of their second battle, Holloway solely tried two leg kicks. A yr later, when he rematched Alexander Volkanovski, he threw 55. Towards Gaethje, that quantity rose to 69. It’s the single-biggest change in Holloway’s sport lately, and it’s massively useful. Not solely does it disrupt timing and rating factors, it additionally opens up extra conventional offense and serves as a complement to Holloway’s physique work. Max has at all times been nice at concentrating on the physique, and at light-weight, that’s much more mandatory. Up a weight class, Holloway is in for extra wars of attrition, and the physique work was instrumental in beating Gaethje at UFC 300. Count on the identical right here.

Lastly, a possible distinction maker on this battle is Holloway’s improved footwork. Max has at all times had sharp fingers, however now his ft are equally on level. Within the rematch, Poirier was capable of catch Holloway out of place with some regularity and rating with lunging pictures. That ought to be much less viable this time round, that means Holloway ought to principally be in exchanges the place the phrases are even.

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photos

Paths to victory for Dustin Poirier at UFC 318

If Holloway goes to look to work over the legs and physique, what ought to Poirier do? To paraphrase Thanos, intention for the top.

Why don’t we try that Holloway graphic yet one more time. Discover anything about it?

Trace: for as excessive up as Max is on strikes landed, he’s additionally the chief in strikes absorbed by a rustic mile. That’s not precisely a shock since throwing punches often ends in return fireplace, however nonetheless, it’s kinda of jarring to see simply what number of blows Holloway has taken in his profession. And people pictures are beginning to add up. Two fights in the past, Justin Gaethje grew to become the primary individual to knock Holloway down. Then, in his final battle, Max acquired knocked out for the primary time in his profession. That’s a regarding trajectory for a person who has been fist-fighting the most effective competitors on the earth for properly over a decade.

Poirier has to come back into this battle assuming Holloway will likely be higher ready for his protection than the final go-around. However for the offensive enhancements Holloway has remodeled his profession, Max’s placing protection hasn’t superior on the similar charge. Don’t get me incorrect, Holloway has stable head motion and rolls punches properly, however his sport nonetheless rests on having an all-time nice chin, and that will not be the case. Even of their second matchup, Poirier was capable of harm Max with some regularity. That ought to be simpler now.

Secondly, Poirier must lean into the leg-kicking properly. For as a lot as he’s improved by including his personal kicks, Holloway can nonetheless have his legs taken out from beneath him, and the calf kick is a pure counter to Holloway’s jab, the weapon that ought to be first precedence to disrupt. Inside and out of doors low kicks to off-balance Max, ought to rating and arrange the massive left hand for Poirier.

Lastly, I’d actually wish to see Poirier combine up his offense like he did within the rematch. I doubt Poirier can get Holloway down, however he discovered actual success of their second battle, forcing clinches and utilizing his physicality to shorten the battle some and mute Holloway’s offense. One thing related is a good suggestion on Saturday.

Questions

1. How does Max react to struggling his first KO? Some fighters are by no means the identical, and it appears very apparent to me that Alexander Volkanovski was fully shook coming off his KO loss to Islam Makhachev. If Holloway brings that kind of power to this one, he’s gonna have a foul evening.
2. How does Poirier’s pending retirement and the hometown crowd have an effect on “The Diamond”? Fighters react to all the things in another way, and whereas a retirement battle and the power of a hometown crowd can pump you up, all that stress can typically overwhelm or detract from a fighter’s efficiency.
3. What if Max factors to the bottom within the first moments of the battle? Actually, I simply need to see this occur. No want to attend for the ultimate 10 seconds. That is the ultimate battle of Dustin’s profession. Simply step into the cellphone sales space and set it off.

Prediction

I believe we’re in for an additional all-time basic on Saturday. Poirier is likely one of the 5 most enjoyable fighters in MMA historical past, and Holloway is at the least within the dialog for Prime 10. When these two dudes get locked in a cage, it’s nearly at all times fireworks. With this being Poirier’s final journey, he’s going to go away all of it on the market, and Holloway rattling certain doesn’t need to go to 0-3 in opposition to another person. Each males are giving us all the things they’ve acquired, and in that state of affairs, it’s arduous to not root for the sentimental, fairytale ending.

Dustin Poirier is likely one of the most well-respected fighters in MMA, and one of many few unimpeachably good guys within the sport. He’s what MMA ought to aspire to be, and so, for his final outing, I’ve to hope the fates converge to present him the proper sendoff: a win in his hometown along with his signature transfer, which has by no means as soon as labored. Possibly now it lastly will.

Dustin Poirier def. Max Holloway by way of submission (guillotine choke) — R4, 1:19.