UFC 317 roundtable: What happens if Ilia Topuria loses?

Ilia Topuria has the golden alternative he wished, however UFC 317 might transform a case of being cautious what you want for.

The previous featherweight champion seeks so as to add the UFC light-weight title to his assortment when he fights Charles Oliveira in Saturday’s foremost occasion at T-Cell Area in Las Vegas. No, he’s not getting the possibility to dethrone pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev – himself, transferring as much as 170 kilos to develop into a “champ-champ” – but when he defeats Oliveira to say the vacant belt, he’ll be a part of an inventory of legendary two-division champions that features Georges St-Pierre, Jon Jones, Amanda Nunes, Alex Pereira, Conor McGregor, Daniel Cormier, Randy Couture, Henry Cejudo, and B.J. Penn.

However what if he falls quick? Topuria has by no means misplaced, and after numerous interviews by which he set lofty objectives for himself, the general public backlash might be not like something we’ve seen lately.

Forward of UFC 317, MMA Preventing’s Mike Heck, Damon Martin, and Alexander Ok. Lee peek into the longer term to see how Saturday’s outcomes might reshape the legacies of the celebrities on the cardboard.

1. What’s Ilia Topuria’s subsequent transfer if he doesn’t win?

Heck: Most likely the identical as if he wins – he fights Paddy Pimblett.

From all accounts, Ilia Topuria appears to have taken the transfer to light-weight fairly significantly, and as he just lately stated at his open exercise press convention Friday, he appears like a brand new man at 155 kilos. And due to that, no matter consequence, he’ll be sticking round previous UFC 317. In fact, if he loses to Charles Oliveira, he’ll cope with short-term warmth from the fanbase, however I don’t suppose he drops again down, and if he faces Pimblett in his subsequent struggle and wins, he’ll be proper again to the place he’s now.

And whereas I really feel like Oliveira is being neglected by the neighborhood in an enormous method, I do really feel Topuria wins on Saturday, and does so in a memorable style.

Martin: My esteemed colleague Mr. Heck has the proper possibility already discovered however enable me to throw out yet one more identify only for the enjoyable of it – what about Topuria vs. Dan Hooker?

The visuals of that struggle would make us really feel like we’ve returned to the most effective days of PRIDE Preventing Championships when freak present fights have been simply a part of the present. Hooker stands 6-foot tall whereas Topuria is available in at simply 5-foot-7 – the staredown alone could be price it for this struggle if it occurs. Plus let’s be sincere, Hooker has seemingly misplaced all of the momentum he constructed after beating Mateusz Gamrot as a result of he’s been injured and unable to compete since August 2024.

Clearly, Topuria would have one other robust matchup at light-weight, however that’s going to occur irrespective of the consequence at UFC 317 so would possibly as properly hold him on the prime of the division to see what he can do. So Topuria vs. Pimblett is the reply however hold Topuria vs. Hooker as a backup simply in case.

Lee: Again to the desert for you, Mr. Topuria.

I do know Topuria has been agency about not going again to 145 kilos, however to me that simply seems like him being his common, endlessly assured self. He can’t think about a state of affairs the place he loses, so there’s no motive to think about trying again.

Oliveira is likely one of the biggest lightweights of all-time and there’s no disgrace in Topuria being blesses along with his first L by “do Bronx.” That stated, Topuria’s light-weight title chase has already been dimmed considerably by Islam Makhachev departing the division. If he can’t get previous his second alternative? It might be an indication.

Topuria left unfinished enterprise at featherweight, even with two of probably the most unbelievable title struggle knockouts within the division’s historical past. Alexander Volkanovski, the person Topuria beat to develop into champion, reclaimed the vacant belt, so there’s a tantalizing rematch proper there. After which there are contemporary challengers in Jean Silva, Movsar Evloev, and Aaron Pico.

Let’s see him return and filter out the division for actual.

2. Ought to Topuria falter, does Alexandre Pantoja take the No. 2 spot on the Pound-for-Pound listing?

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Lee: Positive, why not?

On MMA Preventing’s Pound-for-Pound listing, Alexandre Pantoja is tied for the No. 3 spot with bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. Within the occasion Topuria loses, and Pantoja logs his fourth straight title protection, let’s give him his due.

There must be a penalty for transferring up a division, it will probably’t simply be a free Bingo sq., so Topuria dangers a bump down in my rankings until his loss comes through an egregious theft. And if Pantoja is his normally spectacular self, I’m more than pleased to declare him the No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter on this planet.

Whoa, seems to be bizarre truly writing it out, although.

Heck: He gained’t on my listing, however that’s not as a result of he doesn’t deserve it – and in addition, he has a struggle on this card towards a harmful man in Kai Kara-France. As we all know on this nice sport of ours, when the cage door closes, something can occur.

Realistically, Pantoja ought to win, and if he does, he will definitely transfer up a spot. At present, I’ve Pantoja at No. 5 behind Islam Makhachev, Topuria, Dricus du Plessis, and Merab Dvalishvili. A win for Pantoja, and a Topuria loss places him as much as No. 4, however I can’t bounce him above DDP and Dvalishvili.

Martin: Sadly not.

Pantoja is an extremely gifted fighter, and he’s doing his best possible to finally problem Demetrious Johnson for probably the most profitable title defenses in UFC historical past, however he’s more likely to undergo the identical destiny as “Mighty Mouse” when he was champion and that comes all the way down to degree of competitors.

Throughout his present reign as champion, Pantoja has taken out Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno – each high-quality wins – however then he beat Steve Erceg and Kai Asakura and neither of these guys are literally prime flyweights. Sorry to say, Kara-France coming into the co-main occasion off a formidable one-fight win streak simply isn’t getting the job completed to actually elevate Pantoja a lot increased on the rankings. That is the definition of a high-risk, low-reward struggle for Pantoja so the most effective he can hope for is simply sustaining his present spot or presumably leaping up one spot with Topuria faltering.

3. What’s probably the most intriguing struggle exterior of the principle and co-main?

Martin: UFC 317 took successful when Manel Kape suffered a foot harm that knocked him off the cardboard, however then the promotion pulled a rabbit out of a hat with Joshua Van stepping up on quick discover to face Brandon Royval. At 23 years previous, Van seems to have all the things wanted to develop into a severe menace within the flyweight division, and whereas the state of affairs surrounding this struggle isn’t excellent, it’s nonetheless an enormous alternative for him to conquer a prime foe and make an enormous leap up the rankings.

As beforehand said, Pantoja wants some new blood to problem him and if Van can pull off the upset towards Royval, he positively qualifies. Plus, Van is only a blast to observe within the cage so let’s see what he can do towards a confirmed contender like Royval, who additionally deserves a mountain of credit score for even accepting this matchup on quick discover. Simply to prime it off, this can be a actual early contender to steal Combat of the Night time so don’t miss it.

Lee: Name me sentimental, however I need to understand how a lot Beneil Dariush has left.

If anybody has lived a thankless existence at light-weight, it’s Dariush. A lot of that’s of his personal making as he’s not often pushed for the promotion to grant him a title shot or perhaps a No. 1 contender struggle, however each time I see the 16-year (!) veteran struggle, I can’t assist however suppose he was destined for extra in some unspecified time in the future. He turned 36 in Might, it’s important to marvel if a 3rd straight loss might mark his closing struggle.

OK, I’m in all probability unnecessarily eulogizing right here. Possibly Dariush fights for an additional 5 years. I’m trying ahead to him fighing Renato Moicano and you must too.

Heck: I’ll go off the board barely and go along with the principle card opener between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima.

I can’t deceive you, people, I’m nonetheless puzzled by this one. The UFC was transparently giving Talbott the massive push, however then he was taught a little bit of a veteran lesson by Raoni Barcelos at UFC 311. I assumed the UFC would give him a lower-ranked man to get some confidence again, however as a substitute they matched him up with Felipe Lima, who has regarded incredible since coming to the UFC, and has completed so up a weight class.

This struggle is tremendous fascinating on paper, and from a stylistic perspective, however the fallout from it might be wild. What if Talbott loses? Rather a lot using on this one for the younger man.

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC