Alexander Volkanovski has been right here earlier than, however the circumstances are uncommon to say the least.
Clearly, Volkanovski is accustomed to huge moments. “The Nice” has fought in nothing however championship bouts since 2019 and on Saturday he does so once more when he fights Diego Lopes for a vacant featherweight title in the primary occasion of UFC 314. It’s the identical title Volkanovski held and efficiently defended for 5 years and that’s up for grabs as soon as extra with soon-to-be former champion Ilia Topuria leaving the division in quest of light-weight glory.
However he’s by no means fought for a title coming off of a 14-month layoff. And coming off of two devastating knockout losses. Right here’s the checklist of fighters to win an undisputed UFC title on a two-fight shedding streak:
It feels extremely bizarre declaring the deck is stacked towards among the finest fighters ever – particularly when most oddsmakers have him barely favored – however that is about as tall a mountain as Volkanovski has ever needed to climb.
Lopes is a worthy challenger, having made it to the UFC the laborious approach and endeared himself to followers and matchmakers together with his anybody, wherever angle. He debuted by placing a scare within the undefeated Movsar Evloev and has since received 5 straight, establishing himself as a recent face that additionally has loads of high-level expertise.
Will the conclusion of Lopes’ championship journey additionally sign the top of Volkanovski’s storied profession?
Additionally on the primary card, Michael Chandler and Paddy Pimblett meet in a five-round light-weight co-main occasion, Yair Rodriguez welcomes multiple-time Bellator champion Patricio Pitbull to the octagon, Bryce Mitchell and Jean Silva conflict after a wild build-up, and Nikita Krylov returns from a two-year hiatus to face the resurgent Dominick Reyes.
What: UFC 314
The place: Kaseya Middle in Miami
When: Saturday, April 12. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Disney+, adopted by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN, ESPN+ and Disney+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight principal card begins at 10 p.m. ET solely on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses point out standing within the MMA Combating International Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Alexander Volkanovski (2, P4P-T13) vs. Diego Lopes (5)
Talent for ability, Alexander Volkanovski continues to be pretty much as good because it will get.
Elite boxing? Test. Rock-solid wrestling? Test. Hermetic grappling? Test. Knowledgeable clinch work? Test. Even at 36 years younger, he can do all of it. The primary combat with Islam Makhachev confirmed how excessive a stage he can attain and earlier than he was caught by Ilia Topuria, Volkanovski seemed like he was nonetheless able to go a tough 5 rounds with “La Leyenda.”
However there’s additionally the second combat with Makhachev to think about. And the truth that he was caught by Topuria in any respect. Volkanovski has taken a 12 months off to get well, which might solely assist, however how a lot? It’s not simply the mileage, it’s the tough terrain Volkanovski has navigated all through his UFC profession. In some unspecified time in the future, you lose a step, and if you do, there’s a dozen hungry fighters seeking to take a step forward of you.
Enter Diego Lopes.
The hardened Lopes didn’t take the attractive path to his championship alternative. He’s not an undefeated blue-chip prospect, he’s not coming off a string of highlight-reel knockouts, he’s not going to conflict on the microphone to pressure the matchmakers’ arms. It took him 9 years to get a glance on Dana White’s Contender Collection. Then he misplaced and it was proper again to the drafting board.
Lopes’ greatest capability has arguably been availability, however don’t low cost what he can do within the cage. He’s a fantastic striker and an excellent grappler, greater than expert sufficient in each departments to problem even a primary Volkanovski. Or beat this model.
I’m choosing Lopes. The 170-pound weight class and under isn’t type to fighters 35 and up, particularly warriors like Volkanovski who’ve left all of it within the cage throughout a number of continents. Lopes won’t have the hanging to place Volkanovski down for good, however he’ll knock him down early, setting the tone for the remainder of a aggressive combat.
Wherever Volkanovski goes after this one, it received’t be as featherweight champion.
Choose: Lopes
Michael Chandler (14) vs. Paddy Pimblett
I predicted – nay, manifested this combat to occur on an episode of On To the Subsequent One a while in the past, and I’m not apologizing for it. I’m additionally not apologizing for selecting Paddy Pimblett to take Michael Chandler’s spot within the rankings.
Chandler’s UFC run has been memorable to say the least as he’s by some means managed to realize recognition and proceed reserving fights towards the highest names within the light-weight division regardless of not, you realize, successful a lot? It’s comprehensible if you happen to’ve watched his fights, that are all the time compelling a method or one other, and he nonetheless has a whole lot of that former Bellator star cachet. Nonetheless, in some unspecified time in the future he has to drop a notch within the estimation of the matchmakers. A loss to Pimblett ought to do it.
Pimblett’s harmful grappling is all he must take care of Chandler, a very good offensive wrestler that has by no means been nice at avoiding takedowns. “Iron Mike” is very happy to scramble and energy his approach out of hazard, a lot to the leisure of the followers and his personal detriment. He’s going to be carrying Pimblett like a backpack for a lot of this combat and even with 5 rounds to work with, that might value him on the scorecards.
The 5 rounds make this intriguing as Chandler has a deep fuel tank and the Florida crowd might push him to an lively last lap if Pimblett can’t put him away early (which I doubt he can). Pimblett must financial institution no less than three of the primary 4 rounds as a result of if it’s a toss-up going into the fifth, Chandler goes to lift hell and push a tempo Pimblett can’t match.
That mentioned, I’ve Pimblett doing what he must be up on the scorecards and surviving the final 5 minutes of the combat. The end result needs to be an actual individuals pleaser throughout as Pimblett followers could have one other huge win to rejoice and Pimblett haters could have greater than sufficient fodder with which to poke holes within the end result.
Choose: Pimblett
Yair Rodriguez (8) vs. Patricio Pitbull (9)
My coronary heart mentioned Patricio Pitbull when this combat was introduced, however the mind has come round to Yair Rodriguez.
The primary issue one has to think about is high quality of opposition. With respect to the stable Bellator featherweight division, it’s not a radical take to say Rodriguez’s UFC opponents have been of an objectively increased caliber. I’ve all the time been of the opinion Pitbull would have been a high 5 UFC featherweight in his prime, however that’s theoretical. Rodriguez has really walked that stroll.
Then there’s the sheer measurement benefit Rodriguez has. We’re not simply speaking about arm attain both. Rodriguez’s deadly kicks are a nightmare for Pitbull and whereas I belief Pitbull to combine in takedowns if alternatives are offered, he’s going to eat a whole lot of ft and knees earlier than he can dig in.
If I had been to offer Pitbull an edge in something, it may be hand pace, however even there Rodriguez is not any slouch. He’s only a nightmare matchup for Pitbull, an absolute gamer that may give his all for 3 rounds in pursuit of his UFC championship dream.
It simply received’t be sufficient.
Choose: Rodriguez
Jean Silva vs. Bryce Mitchell
From the second this matchup was booked, Jean Silva by knockout was the plain prediction. So apparent, I see no purpose to deviate from it.
That is undoubtedly a winnable matchup for Bryce Mitchell, given his glorious grappling and aggressive type. Placing a fighter like Silva on the again foot could possibly be precisely what’s wanted to defuse his explosive hanging. So you may perceive why Mitchell was fast to simply accept the chance to derail the hype practice of one of many Combating Nerds’ most promising representatives.
Silva’s pace would be the distinction right here, although. He’s fast on his ft and has proven he can defend takedowns and stand up when he’s placed on his again. His grappling protection needs to be on level, however Mitchell isn’t going to have a simple time of it if he takes a one-dimensional strategy to neutralizing Silva.
I’m not assured Mitchell can keep away from Silva’s punches for 3 rounds, even when he has some success slowing him down at first. A knockout feels inevitable.
Choose: Silva
Nikita Krylov (9) vs. Dominick Reyes (15)
Dominick Reyes on a win streak? What 12 months is that this???
Your eyes don’t deceive you. Reyes has strung collectively consecutive victories for the primary time since 2019 and he seems each rejuvenated and freed from the expectations that weighed him down for therefore lengthy after being “that man who virtually beat Jon Jones.” Respectfully, his comeback has in all probability been helped by the truth that his previous two opponents are older than him, however hey, wins are wins!
Krylov, regardless of having significantly extra expertise, is by some means youthful than Reyes. He’s additionally been out of motion for 2 years. That is only a bizarre matchup and but a becoming one given their present rankings and streaks (Krylov has received three straight! When did that occur?)
Reyes’ athleticism and agility gave him a leg up on the competitors early in his profession and he’s as spry as ever. He’ll must be defensively sound right here as a result of Krylov will look to shut the gap and create as many clashes as potential, with the hopes of stopping Reyes from discovering any type of rhythm.
Anticipate this combat to be all types of junky for so long as it lasts, with Reyes ultimately discovering an angle from which to crack Krylov and lay him out.
Choose: Reyes
Preliminaries
Dan Ige def. Sean Woodson
Virna Jandiroba (5, P4P-18) def. Yan Xiaonan (3, P4P-11)
Chase Hooper def. Jim Miller
Julian Erosa def. Darren Elkins
Michal Oleksiejczuk def. Sedriques Dumas
Mitch Raposo def. Sumudaerji
Marco Tulio def. Tresean Gore
Nora Cornolle def. Hailey Cowan
