UFC Mexico gambling preview: Best bets for Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg

The UFC is heading again to Mexico!

On Saturday, the most recent UFC Mexico Metropolis card takes place from Area CDMX in Mexico Metropolis, headlined by a flyweight scrap between former two-time champion Brandon Moreno and former title challenger Steve Erceg. However earlier than that, we’ve bought 12 different fights to whet our whistles, so let’s dive proper into the very best picks and performs this weekend.

All odds are courtesy of our buddies at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Single Performs

Kelvin Gastelum (+240)

Gastelum takes on Joe Pyfer within the featured important card battle this weekend, and this quantity has already plummeted from the place it was. Earlier this week you might discover Gastelum at +400 in some locations, however the good cash stopped that properly sufficient. Nonetheless, this can be a massive underdog value for a man who has an actual shot at profitable on Saturday. Pyfer was presupposed to be middleweight’s subsequent massive factor till he bumped into Jack Hermansson, who didn’t merely fall over within the face of Pyfer’s physicality. That battle revealed Pyfer nonetheless has numerous rising to do, and Gastelum is precisely the form of opponent who will punish him if he hasn’t. Gastelum has an unbreakable chin, and he retains coming after an opponent even when he’s down. That’s properly value a shot given the value.

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Prop Bets

Brandon Moreno to Win & Spherical 2 to Begin (-185)

Mixing issues up just a little on this one as a result of I needed to get barely higher odds than the Moreno straight motion at -250. That line isn’t horrible, however we will squeeze just a little extra juice out of it with this prop guess.

I really feel actually good about Moreno beating Erceg on Saturday as he’s the extra dynamic and achieved fighter. Erceg has nice boxing however his defensive wrestling isn’t the strongest, and Moreno has a extra diversified hanging sport plus a granite chin. I merely assume he brings too many weapons in opposition to Erceg to lose. However I’m additionally unsure how he will get it carried out, as a result of he’s so well-rounded. My intestine says a submission could occur however as a substitute, I’m taking this line as a result of Moreno ought to win and he solely has two first-round finishes within the UFC and none since 2020.

Raul Rosas Jr. by Factors (+105)

Rosas Jr. is a giant favourite in opposition to Vince Morales, and it’s apparent why: other than getting the UFC push, Rosas is legitimately proficient and Morales is … much less so. Rosas shouldn’t have any massive difficulty scoring takedowns and dealing his grappling sport to get the win. That being stated, Morales hasn’t been submitted since 2018, and he’s fought some superb opponents. His sturdiness means this most likely goes to the scorecards.

Crazy Godinez by Factors (-155)

Godinez takes on Julia Polastri on the prelims on Saturday, and I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t win. Godinez is on a two-fight shedding streak however these losses got here to Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern, two of the very best girls on the planet. Polastri, in the meantime, gained a break up determination over Cory McKenna in her most up-to-date battle. Godinez brings numerous strain and may combine within the grappling an excessive amount of for Polastri to win, however she’s not a finisher so this may go to the playing cards.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Parlay

After hitting a giant Gimmick Parlay final weekend (Chris Duncan Parlay is now 2-0), we’re going proper again to the properly on Saturday. No, not with a Rodriguez parlay, however with a Spherical 1 Prospect Parlay as Saturday options two fighters I graded as elite prospects coming off the latest season of Contender Collection.

David Martinez (-400)

Martinez takes on Saimon Oliveira in his promotional debut on Saturday and that is an apparent set-up battle for “Black Spartan.” Oliveira is 0-2 within the UFC and hasn’t fought in two years, whereas Martinez is already a refined product, ready-made to start out competing with high-level opposition. The previous Combate champion ought to have himself a showcase on Saturday.

Ateba Gautier (-430)

Saturday can be Gautier’s UFC debut as he takes on Jose Daniel Medina on the prelims in what can be a set-up battle. Whereas Martinez is well-rounded and polished, Gautier is a bodily specimen who I in comparison with Melvin Manhoef. Gautier wants some growth, however Medina is the correct opponent to let him get simply that whereas additionally not offering a critical danger of setback.

Parlay these two bets collectively for -185 odds.

Wrap Up

Scorching dayum we did it! Been ready for a giant weekend all yr and we lastly had one with UFC London. We missed on the primary occasion (badly, I would add) however smashed every thing else, together with some massive underdog numbers in there. Let’s hope we will preserve issues rolling for UFC Mexico.

Till subsequent week, benefit from the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

All info on this article is supplied to readers of MMA Combating for leisure, information, and amusement functions solely. It’s the duty of the reader to study and abide by on-line playing legal guidelines of their area earlier than putting any on-line sports activities betting wagers.