UFC Vegas 103 Gambling Preview: Should Manel Kape being a betting favorite over Asu Almabayev?

The UFC returns to the APEX for UFC Vegas 103 this weekend, headlined by a short-notice flyweight struggle between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev. Kape was presupposed to face Brandon Royval in a No. 1 contender matchup, however now that’s thrown into query as the 2 surging flyweights duke it out atop a totally forgettable struggle card. Nonetheless, loads of fights means loads of possibilities to make some cash.

All odds are courtesy of our associates at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Single Performs

Asu Almabayev (+176)

I’m shocked the road is that this large on Saturday’s most important occasion. I do know Kape is a fan favourite and Almabayev is stepping in on brief discover, however this can be a robust stylistic matchup for “Starboy.” Almabayev is the precise form of hard-nosed grinder that may floor Kape’s harmful placing sport, and although Kape has improved on the ground, he nonetheless provides up loads of takedowns. Muhammad Mokaev received a choice over Kape with repeated takedowns, and although Almabayev isn’t the identical degree of athlete as Mokaev, he’s the extra developed floor fighter at this stage. If Almabayev has the fuel to go 25 minutes, I feel he wins this one outright.

Cody Brundage (+110)

Much like the principle occasion, I don’t actually know why Brundage isn’t the favourite in his co-main occasion struggle with Julian Marquez. Marquez is on a three-fight shedding streak and has constantly proven an incapability to wrestle defensively. If Marquez doesn’t land a guillotine choke, Brundage ought to have the ability to management this struggle, and if Brundage falls headlong into that, I’ll be shocked. The person has been submitted earlier than however Marquez is a far cry from Bo Nickal and Rodolfo Vieira on the ground.

Andrea Lee (+168)

This one might be actually silly, however I can’t assist it. Lee takes on JJ Aldrich in a prelim bout on Saturday and he or she ought to win. The rationale Lee is an underdog is she’s presently on a five-fight shedding streak. That’s robust, however a couple of of these fights might’ve gone both means and Aldrich merely isn’t good. Lee can outwork Aldrich on the ft and has the superior wrestling abilities to combine issues up. If it weren’t for the shedding streak, Lee can be a favourite.

Photograph by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Prop Bets

Mario Pinto by KO/TKO (-145)

Pinto makes his UFC debut on Saturday towards Austen Lane and he’s a prospect to observe. Off probably the most motive season of Contender Sequence, Pinto was considered one of my favourite fighters and I comped him to Alex Pereira as a result of he’s an enormous dude with poise who hits actually arduous. And what are you aware, that’s the recipe to beat Lane. In his 19-fight profession, Lane has misplaced 5 occasions, all by knockout, and 5 of Pinto’s 9 profession wins are by KO. A+B=C — Pinto by KO.

Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson Beneath 1.5 Rounds (-110)

In my Contender Sequence breakdown of Barlow, I famous that he doesn’t care a lot about protection. Properly, that strains up nicely towards Patterson who can also be trying to finish issues shortly. 5 of Barlow’s eight profession fights have ended within the first whereas eight of Patterson’s 15 have carried out the identical, together with three in a row for “The Future.” This one needs to be brief.

Wrap Up

No parlay this week as there aren’t a whole lot of strains I like on the market and the very best gimmick parlay is a Portugal Parlay with Kape and Pinto, however since I’m backing Almabayev, that’s a nonstarter.

We saved issues small final week and nonetheless fell brief. If solely Cejudo had taken the No-Contest, issues may need been completely different, however alas, right here we’re. Higher luck this week, hopefully.

Till subsequent week, benefit from the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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