You would possibly assume this column’s title pertains to Method 1 having an epic championship combat in retailer in 2025. It may, however extra on that later…
The ‘tremendous season’ I’m speaking about shouldn’t be really about 2025. It’s greater than that, nevertheless it is about to begin.
I can’t declare to be the one that labored this out, both. It took a group member – a group coordinator, no much less – to spotlight it, such is their thought course of in relation to planning, logistics, and the way in which a race group goes to wish to function.
Assuming the 2026 calendar follows the identical tough schedule as the 2 years which have gone earlier than it and runs from March to December, then we’re just some weeks away from present F1 vehicles doubtless working each month for 23 months straight.
That’s as a result of 2025 testing will happen in February, the ultimate race shall be held on December 7 (and the post-season check follows it), after which the primary check of 2026 is provisionally anticipated to be held in late January. That follows the identical timeline as 2014’s main technical regulation modifications, when the opening pre-season check happened from January 28-31 in Jerez to permit preliminary energy unit assessments.
Even when that opening check does find yourself going down in February, groups had been in a position to make use of the 2021 automotive for testing of earlier automotive (TPC) working in 2022 because of the vital change in rules. Given 2026 presents an analogous state of affairs, this 12 months’s vehicles may effectively preserve working subsequent January, too.
It highlights what a significant problem all the groups are going through in relation to the brand new vehicles, as they grapple with not solely a brand new set of aerodynamics but additionally contemporary energy unit guidelines. Though not fairly as advanced because the 2014 modifications, they nonetheless mark a big shift, as the primary new engines because the hybrids had been launched a decade in the past.
So they’re now confronted with juggling the supply of their new vehicles for this coming season, their ongoing upgrades all through 2025, growth of the 2026 designs – aerodynamic work solely being allowed to begin on January 1 of this 12 months – and TPC working, in addition to testing of mule vehicles if the FIA requires it.
Whereas all of which may sounds comparatively just like what groups had been capable of do with huge testing packages previously, they’re now restricted in lots of areas by the associated fee cap, and in addition going through one other 24-race season.
And it’s a season that appears set to be as aggressive as any in latest historical past.
As I admitted in my ‘2025 Want Listing’, the way in which this coming 12 months is shaping up on the entrance of the sector is definitely a supply of hysteria for me. From the Miami Grand Prix onwards, it was a remarkably aggressive season final 12 months, throughout a number of totally different groups. The unprecedented variety of one-two finishes from 4 totally different constructors, and 7 winners who additionally all had a number of victories, was in some methods scuppered by Max Verstappen’s blistering begin that moved him out of attain of the chasing pack.
However there was a greatest weak spot in that pack within the type of Mercedes. As a group it was a good distance off at the beginning of the 12 months, and whereas there have been some extraordinarily aggressive weekends, there have been others that had been simply as poor as when the 12 months started. In contrast to McLaren, Ferrari and Purple Bull, it couldn’t arrive at any given monitor with any actual type of confidence that it might be preventing with the others, nevertheless it did at the least have the excessive factors to attempt to study from.
For groups like Aston Martin, a disappointing begin to 2025 would possibly imply a really quick pivot to preparations for 2026. Steven Tee/Motorsport Pictures
So the added data, and a full low season to provide a brand new automotive which may make the most of that understanding, may put Mercedes within the body to hitch the highest three on a extra common foundation.
It may very well be argued that Ferrari was essentially the most persistently robust group by the top of the season – Charles Leclerc scored essentially the most factors of any single driver from the summer time break onwards, and the group itself outscored McLaren by seven throughout that very same span. However the mid-season errors had been expensive, and characterize the primary space that wants addressing this 12 months.
McLaren managed to take care of the higher type from Miami onwards regardless of a title coming when it was clearly nonetheless in studying mode, so there’s positively room for enchancment there too, and we noticed Purple Bull recuperate from essentially the most alarming spell of its season round Monza and Baku to be aggressive once more within the last rounds.
So Mercedes has the most important headroom, however all can do higher, and in an ideal world all 4 will accomplish that, resulting in a championship that may very well be gained by any considered one of 4 groups, and any considered one of seven drivers (given Purple Bull’s admittance that Liam Lawson’s position is to play second fiddle to Max Verstappen).
The nervousness I spoke of earlier is about what if 2025 doesn’t ship – if a kind of 4 groups does make the progress outlined above however not one of the others do and there’s a transparent chief early on, a lot as there was at the beginning of final season.
In that case, the influence of the ‘tremendous season’ may actually take maintain. Groups shall be much less prone to proceed creating their 2025 vehicles for lengthy in the event that they don’t begin the 12 months with a practical probability of preventing for a championship.
The identical might be stated of the midfield, the place groups are much more prone to write off the approaching 12 months when their potential returns are so restricted to attempt to make the most of 2026. Assuming the highest 4 stays the clear prime 4 – and that’s maybe being cautious when the small gaps throughout the sector may see a fifth be part of the get together – then at greatest the remainder are usually preventing for ninth and tenth every weekend.
However don’t fear, I’m not getting pessimistic. Nor am I essentially anticipating any of the above to occur, as a result of it’s so uncommon for the complete area to really feel that it was inside placing distance of a giant outcome.
On the last spherical of 2024, eight of the ten groups had been inside 0.609s of pole place, and that included Stake Sauber that had made strides by means of the 12 months and was represented in Q3. Of the opposite two groups, considered one of them – RB – certified eleventh and twelfth, and a bit over 0.4s off the quickest Q2 time.
Wins and podiums would possibly stay unrealistic for almost all, however small good points can transfer a group a good distance in such a aggressive area. That makes the approaching season all of the extra engaging for all 10 constructors’, figuring out that vital progress shouldn’t be out of attain.
It’s all set as much as be an epic 12 months when it comes to competitiveness, however much more in order the game transitions in the direction of the brand new rules, when Audi and Cadillac will be part of the fray to attempt to upset the established order.
Prepare. The tremendous season goes to be some journey.
